Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 15 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $68.84/MWh at 20:25 AEST, up from the $54-58/MWh band that held through the afternoon as evening demand ramps to 5,751 MW. Prices have been volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging from a peak of $95.65/MWh during this morning's 08:00 demand ramp to sub-zero prints as low as -$4.97/MWh overnight when demand troughed near 3,850 MW. That overnight collapse reflects minimal load combined with strong wind output; predispatch shows this pattern repeating tonight, with forecast prices falling to -$8.62/MWh by 04:00 AEST before recovering through the morning ramp to a forecast $91.82/MWh by 09:00 tomorrow.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,071 MW, with wind contributing 1,363 MW, gas (OCGT) at 95 MW, and batteries dispatching 48 MW. Solar is negligible at this evening hour. Total generation of roughly 6,578 MW against 5,751 MW demand reflects net exports to neighbouring regions. Renewable penetration sits at 21.46%, down from a peak of 48.8% recorded around 03:00 AEST overnight when wind generation was strongest relative to lower demand.
Carbon intensity is currently 0.6879 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the top of today's range. Intensity troughed at 0.447 tCO2/MWh overnight during the high-wind, low-demand window and has climbed steadily through the day as coal's share of the mix increased with rising demand — consistent with the inverse relationship between renewable penetration and carbon intensity observed all day. Tomorrow's weather outlook shows improving solar potential (23.6% average, up from today's cloud-affected conditions) and only modest wind potential (2.1%), suggesting daytime carbon intensity may ease slightly with stronger solar contribution.
Active market notices for the region include a non-conformance declaration for WOOLGSF1 (143 MW, 13 August) and an inter-regional transfer constraint (Q-HATR) from an unplanned Tarong 275 kV circuit breaker outage on 8 August, both still flagged active. No new QLD-specific reliability or intervention notices have been issued since. Load-shifting opportunities are concentrated in the 00:00-05:00 AEST window tomorrow, with forecast prices below -$7/MWh across several half-hour blocks, offering roughly $99-100/MWh in savings versus today's peak for flexible load.