Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 15 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $69.35/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 5,340 MW — up from the overnight trough near 4,650 MW but well below yesterday's evening peak. The price-demand relationship is tight through this data set: every push above 6,800 MW yesterday pulled RRP into the $90-108/MWh band, while the demand pullback into the low 5,000s MW overnight collapsed prices to the $45-66/MWh range, and briefly to $12.96/MWh at 05:40 as demand troughed. This is a demand-elastic market this morning, with the generation stack — 4,599 MW brown coal, 909 MW wind, minimal gas and negligible solar given 100% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential — leaving limited fast-response headroom when demand steps up quickly.
The forecast trajectory points to a firming day. AEMO's price curve shows RRP climbing from current levels through the morning to peak near $97-98/MWh between 09:00 and 11:30 AEST as the working-day demand ramp compounds with weak solar input (today's outlook has only 9.9% average solar potential, min 6.9°C/max 13.4°C). This mirrors yesterday's pattern where 08:00-09:00 AEST demand crossed 6,800-7,000 MW and prices sat in the $88-108/MWh range for two hours straight. Expect a midday easing as the curve softens to $75-85/MWh through 12:00-14:00 AEST, then a gradual decline into the afternoon, dropping to the mid-$60s by 15:00-18:00 AEST as demand tapers from its morning peak.
Overnight tonight looks materially different from last night. The forward curve shows RRP falling to single digits and turning negative between 03:00-05:30 AEST tomorrow (as low as -$3.50/MWh at 04:30), consistent with low demand, zero solar competition removed, and thin overnight load — a clear signal for flexible load to shift consumption into that window, which aligns with the identified load-shifting opportunities showing $87-100/MWh savings versus peak. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.9986 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 16.97%, tracking with the low wind contribution (909 MW) relative to the brown coal base.
No demand-side constraints or non-conformance notices are affecting Victoria today; the active notices relate to interconnector control issues (Murraylink, Directlink) in neighbouring regions and a prior VIC1 battery non-conformance (PLBESS1, 13 August) that's not current. The key driver for today's price outlook remains the demand ramp against a coal-dominant, solar-constrained supply stack — traders should watch the 08:00-11:00 AEST window most closely, where last year's price response to demand above 6,800 MW was sharpest.