Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 15 August 2026
Tasmania demand sits at 1,144 MW as of 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $66.65/MWh, easing back from the overnight evening peak. Demand has been on a steady climb since 06:00 AEST, up from roughly 986 MW at the start of the ramp, tracking the typical Sunday morning load-building pattern. Price sensitivity to demand is evident through the past 24 hours: the region touched a demand high of 1,271 MW around 22:15-22:55 on the 14th, and prices spiked into the $100-$137/MWh range through the preceding evening peak (17:30-22:00 period) as demand climbed above 1,190 MW. Once demand fell back below 1,100 MW overnight, prices settled into the $50-$70/MWh band, confirming demand as the dominant near-term price driver in TAS1 given hydro's dispatchable but finite capacity.
The forecast trajectory points to a sharp price collapse through the remainder of today into tomorrow's early hours: forecast RRP falls to $52.85/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then to $14.46/MWh by 10:00 AEST, and into negative territory (-$3.67/MWh) around 14:30-15:00 AEST as minimum demand periods coincide with strong hydro output. This reflects Tasmania's typical low-demand window overnight and into the early hours of Monday, consistent with the load-shifting windows flagged for 11:00-15:00 AEST today, where forecast prices average -$2 to $12/MWh — the cheapest window for flexible load or charging batteries.
Price recovers into Monday's morning peak, with forecast RRP climbing back to $88.24/MWh by 16:00-20:00 AEST as demand rebuilds through the day. Generation mix currently shows hydro carrying 983 MW of the 1,223 MW total (80%), with GAS_OCGT contributing 208 MW and wind just 32 MW, reflecting near-zero wind potential (0.1 km/h-equivalent) and negligible solar (0% currently, rising to 15.7% average tomorrow). Renewable penetration sits at 82.99% with carbon intensity at 0.1106 tCO2/MWh. No active demand-side constraints or non-conformance notices apply directly to TAS1 today; the most relevant market notices concern interconnector control issues at Murraylink and Directlink, which affect interstate transfer capability but have no confirmed direct impact on Tasmanian demand or price settlement.