Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 14 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $93.83/MWh at 06:25 AEST (settlement 20:25 UTC), with demand at 6,070 MW. This continues a steady evening recovery after prices spent the overnight period in negative territory, bottoming near -$9/MWh between 04:00-05:00 AEST as solar and low overnight demand pushed the region into oversupply. Prices swung sharply through the day, spiking to an intraday peak of $164.83/MWh at 18:00 AEST during the morning demand ramp, before easing back through the $70-110/MWh band into the evening.
Generation mix at the 20:30 UTC interval is dominated by black coal at 5,574.5 MW, followed by wind at 1,118.1 MW, battery output at 312.8 MW, gas (OCGT) at 134.5 MW, and negligible solar at 1.4 MW given the evening timing. Hydro is offline at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 20.06% and carbon intensity is 0.6992 tCO2/MWh — both improved from the low point mid-afternoon (around 15-17% renewables, 0.72-0.74 tCO2/MWh) as wind generation firms into the evening. Overnight, renewable penetration peaked near 48% around 23:30-00:00 UTC on 13 August with intensity as low as 0.4532 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the strong overnight wind and solar contribution before coal reasserted its evening share.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing further overnight, dropping to $39.75/MWh by 08:00 AEST and turning negative from around 09:00 AEST, bottoming near -$6.54/MWh in the 14:00-15:00 AEST window — consistent with the low-demand, high-renewable overnight pattern seen in the past 24 hours. Prices are forecast to recover from 16:00 AEST, climbing back to $90-92/MWh by 18:00-19:00 AEST as morning demand builds. Optimal load-shifting windows align with this trough, offering savings of $96-98/MWh versus peak pricing between 00:30-05:00 AEST tomorrow.
On notices, an active constraint (I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML) limits Murraylink control in the SA region from 06:10 AEST — this affects interconnector flexibility but has no direct QLD impact. No active non-conformance or intervention notices are currently affecting Queensland; the most recent QLD-specific non-conformance (WOOLGSF1, 143 MW) was resolved on 13 August. Weather today is mild and clear, with cool overnight minimums (11°C) and low wind potential (1.2-1.6), suggesting wind output may soften through the day, with the main renewable contribution likely from tomorrow's modest solar potential (18%).