Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 14 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $102.20/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 1,151 MW, easing back from the evening peak of 1,344 MW recorded at 08:30 UTC (18:30 AEST) yesterday, when prices touched $157.81/MWh. The region is tracking a classic winter demand curve, with overnight minimum demand around 978 MW (15:25 UTC / 01:25 AEST) coinciding with the lowest prices of the period — a trough of $17.11/MWh shortly after. The price-demand relationship is tight through the evening peak: every 100 MW of demand growth from ~1,150 MW to ~1,340 MW added roughly $30-50/MWh to the settlement price, with the steepest gradient between 1,270 MW and 1,340 MW, where prices jumped from $120/MWh to over $155/MWh.
Current generation mix is hydro-dominated at 1,211 MW, supplemented by 207 MW of gas OCGT and just 40 MW of wind, giving a renewable penetration of 85.8% and carbon intensity of 0.0923 tCO2/MWh. The gas OCGT running alongside hydro suggests the system is calling on peaking capacity to manage the current demand block, consistent with the price lifting above $100/MWh. Wind output is negligible and forecast to stay that way — today's wind potential outlook averages just 0.1, with cold, calm conditions (2.5 km/h wind, 4.2°C) limiting any renewable offset from that source.
The forecast trajectory points to a further pullback through the morning before a mid-morning firming: forecast RRP falls to $88.24/MWh by 08:00 AEST and bottoms near $15-25/MWh between 13:00-16:00 AEST (03:00-06:00 UTC) as overnight demand troughs. Prices then rebound into the mid-$80s/MWh through the 17:30-20:00 AEST window (07:30-10:00 UTC) as morning demand builds, broadly mirroring today's pattern. Heating demand is elevated (13.8) given the 4.2°C low, which will keep the morning and evening peaks firm — expect a repeat of last night's $150+/MWh peak pricing during the 17:30-20:30 AEST window if demand tracks similarly toward 1,300+ MW. No demand-side notices affecting Tasmania directly; the active Murraylink control-unavailable notice relates to SA/Victoria interconnection and is not expected to materially affect Basslink flows or local pricing today.