Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 13 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $93.21/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile overnight range that swung from -$24.99/MWh during the 12:50-13:00 AEST solar trough to a peak of $112.71/MWh in the evening ramp around 17:45 AEST. Demand has climbed to 6,948 MW and continues rising into the morning peak, consistent with the pattern of the past 24 hours where demand troughed near 3,564 MW overnight before building through the morning shoulder. The negative pricing overnight reflects strong renewable output combined with low demand — a now-familiar feature of QLD's midday-to-evening price shape.
Generation mix at the 20:30 AEST interval shows black coal dominating supply at 5,678 MW, followed by wind at 770 MW, battery storage at 477 MW, hydro at 166 MW, gas (OCGT) at 115 MW, and negligible solar at 0.92 MW given the evening timing. Total renewable penetration sits at 19.62%, down sharply from the overnight peak of 43.2% recorded around 06:00 AEST when wind and solar were both contributing strongly. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.7037 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4966 tCO2/MWh — this diurnal swing between roughly 0.50 and 0.77 tCO2/MWh has been consistent through the past day as renewable output cycles with solar availability and wind conditions.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation later today. After holding in the $85-120/MWh band through the morning (07:00-09:00 AEST), forecasts show a spike to $185.04/MWh by 09:30 AEST, then surging to $263.82/MWh and $265.95/MWh through the 10:00-10:30 AEST window, with a further peak of $264.75/MWh forecast at 12:30 AEST. This coincides with declining wind potential (today's outlook shows just 0.4% average wind potential) and only moderate solar potential (29.4%), suggesting tighter supply margins through the midday period despite clear skies. Prices are forecast to ease back into the $85-98/MWh range by mid-afternoon and evening (14:00-18:00 AEST). Traders with flexible load should note the AEMO-identified low-price windows between 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, with forecast prices near -$5 to -$6.50/MWh offering substantial savings versus peak.
On market notices, a non-conformance was declared for WOOLGSF1 (143 MW) in QLD1 on 13 August between 10:15-10:50 AEST under constraint NC-Q_WOOLGSF1 — worth monitoring given the unit's material capacity. Separately, a credible contingency reclassification remains in effect for the H11 Nebo SVC and Nebo No.1 275/132kV transformer, active since 6 August due to elevated risk assessment, which may affect network constraints in the region. No active AEMO interventions or reserve notices currently apply to QLD1 specifically, though the broader NEM reserve notice flagging low reserve conditions in South Australia for 2027-28 remains on the books and is not a near-term QLD concern.