Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 13 August 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $92.02/MWh at 6:25am AEST, with demand at 6,185 MW and climbing sharply through the morning ramp — up from 5,600 MW just 25 minutes earlier. That trajectory matters: over the past 24 hours, price sensitivity to demand has been pronounced, with $/MWh tracking demand almost linearly above the 6,500 MW mark. Yesterday's morning peak saw demand hit 7,770 MW at 8:00am, driving prices to $138.95/MWh, and the pattern is repeating today as the cold snap continues — current temperature is 10.2°C with heating demand at 7.8 (on the model's index) and minimal solar potential (cloud cover 13%, rising to 74% later in the day).

The forecast trajectory for today is the key signal for traders. AEMO's forward curve shows prices easing overnight to the $13-50/MWh range through until 6:00am, consistent with low demand and adequate brown coal baseload (currently 4,362 MW, over 70% of generation). But the curve then spikes hard: forecast prices climb to $128/MWh by 6:30am, $169/MWh by 7:00am, and peak at $297-303/MWh between 10:00am and 12:30pm — a materially higher morning peak than yesterday's $138.95/MWh high. This suggests today's demand ramp is expected to be steeper or supply tighter, likely reflecting the low wind potential (0.5-0.8 index) and thin solar contribution given persistent cloud cover forecast at 74% today.

Current generation mix shows wind contributing 1,381 MW and battery storage 315 MW, with renewables at 28.17% of the mix and carbon intensity at 0.866 tCO2/MWh — both trending toward yesterday's early-morning peak-price lows in renewable share (22-25% between 4:00-6:00am) as wind and solar taper overnight. With minimal rooftop solar offset expected given the cloud forecast, midday demand is unlikely to see the usual solar-driven price relief, reinforcing the elevated $170-300/MWh forecast band from 8:00am through 1:00pm before easing to the $100-115/MWh range by mid-afternoon and evening.

For demand-side response, AEMO's active notices show no material constraints directly affecting VIC1 demand today — the PLBESS1 non-conformance (7 MW, 13 August) was a minor, isolated battery dispatch issue with no forecast impact. The steep forecast price spike into late morning stands out as the primary risk window for exposed positions.