Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 13 August 2026
Tasmanian demand sits at 1,162.6 MW as of 06:35 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around 950-990 MW recorded between 12:00-16:00 AEST yesterday, with spot price at $83.54/MWh. The region is climbing through its morning ramp, and the demand-price relationship is tight this morning: every 50-80 MW step up in load over the past two hours has pulled price up by $10-25/MWh, consistent with a steep short-run supply curve once hydro dispatch and the Basslink/Marinus interconnector flows are fully committed. The 06:30-08:30 AEST window yesterday saw demand climb from 1,072 MW to a peak of 1,229 MW, dragging price from $70/MWh to a session high of $134.57/MWh at 05:35 AEST equivalent, before easing back as demand plateaued.
Today's forecast trajectory is the key story. AEMO's forward curve shows price collapsing to $13-25/MWh through the 01:30-04:00 AEST overnight trough as demand falls away, then spiking hard into tomorrow's morning peak — forecast prices climb from $50/MWh at 06:00 AEST to $153/MWh by 07:00 AEST, and then surge to $269-275/MWh across the 10:00-12:30 AEST window. This is a materially sharper peak than today's observed pattern and points to tighter hydro headroom or reduced Basslink import capacity being priced in for the late morning block. Traders should note the identified low-price windows overnight (01:30-02:30 and 03:00-05:00 AEST, both near $14-25/MWh) offer the cheapest load-shifting opportunity, saving up to $260/MWh versus the afternoon peak.
Generation mix currently shows hydro at 970 MW, wind at 487 MW and gas OCGT at 124 MW, with renewable penetration at 92.2% and carbon intensity at a low 0.051 tCO2/MWh — both near the best levels seen in the past 24 hours. Wind potential is forecast to stay weak today (avg 1.3%) with heavy cloud cover (83%), limiting renewable supply cushion during the demand ramp and reinforcing why the forecast price curve leans on hydro and gas to cover the midday peak. No active demand-side constraints or non-conformance notices affect TAS1 today; the most recent regional network reclassifications from early August have all been cancelled. Cold minimum temperatures (6.3°C) and heating demand (7.2 on the index) are consistent with the observed morning ramp and support the case for sustained high demand through to late morning before easing into the afternoon.