Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 12 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $91.73/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, tracking near the upper end of an overnight range that swung from a low of $6.85/MWh around 08:00 AEST yesterday evening to intraday peaks of $294.39/MWh during the 06:45-07:05 AEST window on 12 August. Demand has climbed to 6,915 MW, up from the overnight trough near 4,030 MW recorded around 12:05 AEST, reflecting the typical morning ramp. The current price level is consistent with the morning demand build and sits roughly in line with the past six hours' average, which has ranged $57-105/MWh as demand climbed from evening lows.
Generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal dominant at 5,703 MW, followed by wind at 829 MW and batteries contributing 747 MW. Gas OCGT adds 114 MW, with solar negligible at 0.37 MW given the pre-dawn timing, and hydro at zero. Total generation sits around 7,394 MW against demand of 6,915 MW, with the balance covered by interconnector flows. Renewable penetration is at 21.33%, recovering from a low near 11.7% around 12:00 AEST yesterday afternoon as overnight wind generation strengthened; the peak overnight renewable share reached 41.6% around 02:30 AEST when wind output was highest and demand troughed. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6888 tCO2/MWh, down from a midday peak of 0.7693 tCO2/MWh but above the overnight low of 0.5099 tCO2/MWh — intensity tracks inversely with wind contribution and demand levels through the diurnal cycle.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further pullback through the morning, with prices easing to $76.29/MWh by 07:30 AEST and $68.82/MWh by 08:00 AEST, before turning negative overnight — forecasts show prices dropping to -$25.01/MWh around 14:00 AEST tomorrow (13 August) as low demand and wind generation combine. Prices then rebound sharply through tomorrow morning, reaching $114.88/MWh by 18:00 AEST and peaking near $129.74/MWh around 21:00 AEST tomorrow evening as demand climbs into the evening peak. Traders should note the five identified low-price windows between 01:30-06:30 AEST tomorrow, with the deepest trough at -$23.87/MWh between 03:30-04:30 AEST, offering load-shifting opportunities worth up to $154/MWh versus peak pricing.
On notices, an unplanned outage of the Tarong 275kV circuit breaker on 8 August triggered constraint set Q-HATR affecting the NSW-QLD interconnector, and remains active. A QLD non-conformance declaration for unit MPP_1 (49 MW, 7 August) and a reclassified credible contingency at Nebo (SVC and 275/132kV transformer, effective 6 August) both remain in force. No new QLD-specific reliability or intervention notices have been issued this morning; the most recent system-wide item is the AGC Heart Beat service resumption confirmed at 02:32 AEST today.