Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 12 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $39.86/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,240 MW, climbing sharply from an overnight trough below 5,100 MW around 04:00-05:15 AEST, where prices briefly turned negative (down to -$6.51/MWh). The current interval sits mid-ramp — demand has risen roughly 1,150 MW in just over an hour as the morning ramp builds, and price has responded accordingly, having spiked as high as $101.63/MWh at 08:40 AEST yesterday on a comparable demand profile near 7,700-7,800 MW.
Today's demand trajectory points to a classic dual-peak shape. Overnight demand troughs near 5,100-5,300 MW between 03:00 and 05:00 AEST coincided with prices at or below zero, reflecting minimal operational demand against firm brown coal baseload (4,307 MW) and wind generation (2,472 MW) that together cover most of the load. As demand builds through the morning ramp toward an expected peak above 7,700-7,800 MW (consistent with yesterday's 08:00-09:00 AEST pattern), price sensitivity increases materially — the data shows every ~500 MW step up through the 6,500-7,700 MW band adding $15-25/MWh to spot price as higher-cost peaking plant is dispatched.
The forecast curve reinforces this: AEMO's forward pricing has today's evening peak (07:30-11:00 AEST target times, effectively tonight's evening peak into tomorrow morning) escalating sharply from $84/MWh at 07:00 to $170/MWh by 09:00-11:00, before easing back to the $70-115/MWh band through midday and afternoon. This suggests the market is pricing a tighter supply-demand balance during the morning peak than we're currently seeing, likely reflecting reduced wind or thermal availability. Cold overnight conditions (10.2°C, heating demand index 7.8) with negligible solar potential (cloud cover 84%) are keeping morning heating load firm and delaying any solar offset until well into the day.
Renewable penetration currently sits at 36.5%, with carbon intensity at 0.766 tCO2/MWh — both consistent with wind (2,472 MW) carrying the bulk of renewable output overnight and into the morning ramp, given zero rooftop/grid solar output until sunrise. No demand-side notices (load shedding, reliability declarations, or directions) are active for VIC1 today; the only standing reserve notice concerns SA's 2027-28 outlook and doesn't affect current Victorian dispatch. Traders should watch the 07:00-11:00 AEST window closely — if today's ramp mirrors yesterday's demand profile, spot prices are likely to test the $90-150/MWh range before easing into the afternoon shoulder.