Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 11 August 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $10.65/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,354 MW, still climbing out of the overnight trough. Demand bottomed near 4,870-5,000 MW between 03:00 and 05:30 AEST, when prices ran negative (-$0.05 to -$0.10/MWh) as wind generation (3,322 MW) and battery output outpaced overnight load. The current ramp mirrors yesterday's morning pattern closely: demand rose from ~6,300 MW to over 8,200 MW by 08:00-09:00 AEST, dragging prices from single digits into the $75-90/MWh range as the system called on brown coal (3,440 MW) to cover the gap left by fading wind.

Today's price sensitivity to demand is pronounced and non-linear. Once load pushes past roughly 6,800-7,000 MW, prices historically jump sharply — yesterday's data shows a move from $10-40/MWh to $75-90/MWh within a single 500 MW demand step during the morning ramp. AEMO's forecast confirms this trajectory repeating: forecast RRP climbs from $43.96/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $75.87/MWh by 07:30, then $87-96/MWh through the 08:00-11:30 AEST window, peaking near $96.36/MWh at 10:30 AEST. This aligns with the morning demand build as heating load persists (current temperature 8.9°C, heating demand index 9.1) under overcast skies (90% cloud cover) suppressing solar contribution.

Beyond the morning peak, forecast prices ease through midday and afternoon — $77-81/MWh by midday, falling to $50-59/MWh by 13:00-14:00 AEST, then down to $15/MWh by 17:00-18:00 AEST as solar (limited today given cloud cover) and easing demand reduce reliance on thermal plant. No VIC-specific demand-side notices are active; the only live reliability flag is a South Australia MTPASA low-reserve notice for 2027-28, not a same-day VIC constraint. Traders should watch the 07:00-11:00 AEST window most closely — this is where demand crossing the 7,500-8,000 MW threshold has the largest marginal price impact, consistent with yesterday's realised pattern and today's forecast curve.