Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 11 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $11.86/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing to 1,175 MW as the morning ramp gets underway. This follows an extremely volatile overnight session where prices swung from negative territory (-$0.10/MWh) during low-demand periods around 950-970 MW through to a $320.16/MWh spike at 17:00 AEST yesterday when demand pushed toward 1,186 MW. The pattern is clear: Tasmania's price curve is highly sensitive to demand once it crosses roughly the 1,150-1,200 MW threshold, where the generation stack tightens and gas peaking (OCGT) is called on to firm hydro and wind output.
The current generation mix shows hydro at 395.83 MW and wind at 381 MW carrying the bulk of load, with gas OCGT contributing 124.32 MW to cover the gap — consistent with the pattern seen through yesterday's evening peak. Renewable penetration sits at 86.2% and carbon intensity is low at 0.0897 tCO2/MWh, though both metrics degrade modestly as gas ramps in during demand peaks. AEMO's forecast curve points to a subdued price morning: $12.58/MWh at 07:00 AEST easing toward zero by early afternoon, before climbing back into the $50-64/MWh band through the 07:00-09:00 AEST evening peak window as demand is expected to retrace yesterday's trajectory toward 1,250-1,300 MW.
Demand today is forecast to follow the familiar Tasmanian double-hump shape — a moderate morning ramp, a low-demand trough through midday into early afternoon (sub-1,000 MW, consistent with near-zero and negative pricing intervals seen yesterday from 12:00-19:00 AEST), then a firmer evening peak. Based on yesterday's outturn, that evening peak is where OCGT dispatch and price risk concentrate, with the $320/MWh print at 07:00 AEST (i.e., yesterday's 17:00 local peak) demonstrating how quickly Tasmania's thin reserve margin can spike pricing once hydro and wind are fully committed. No demand-side notices specific to Tasmania are active today; the only live regional notice is AEMO's MT PASA reserve declaration for South Australia in 2027-28, which has no bearing on today's TAS1 conditions. Traders should watch the 17:00-19:00 AEST window for repeat volatility given yesterday's precedent.