Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 10 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $87.72/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing back to 6,430 MW as the morning ramp builds. This follows an overnight trough where demand bottomed near 6,880-7,300 MW through the 15:00-16:00 AEST period (converted to local overnight hours) alongside prices that collapsed to single digits and briefly negative territory (-$6.30/MWh), reflecting minimum overnight load meeting must-run generation. The current 06:30 print marks the tail end of that overnight demand trough before the morning peak build-up resumes.
Demand-price sensitivity is pronounced through the trading day. Overnight demand near 7,000-7,900 MW (in the prior evening peak window) saw prices swing from $30/MWh troughs to $132/MWh spikes within single 5-minute intervals, confirming thin reserve margins are amplifying volatility at these load levels. The steepest correlation appears in the 22:00-08:00 window where demand exceeded 7,800 MW and prices held consistently above $85/MWh, with a spike to $131.47/MWh when demand hit 7,408 MW. Brown coal is supplying 4,332 MW of the current mix, with wind contributing 1,328 MW and batteries dispatching 224 MW — solar remains at zero pre-dawn.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming evening peak: forecast prices climb to $95.19/MWh by 22:30 AEST tonight before easing to $86.14/MWh at 23:00 and falling sharply overnight, with troughs near $0-9/MWh forecast between 01:00-06:00 tomorrow. This mirrors today's demand curve — Victoria peaked near 8,008 MW at 08:20 AEST this morning, eased through the middle of the day to a low near 5,600-5,800 MW in the early afternoon (14:00-15:00 AEST), then is building again into this evening's 19:00-20:30 AEST ramp, where demand has already risen from 5,048 MW at 18:00 to 6,430 MW at 20:30. Cold conditions (8.8°C, heating demand index 9.2) are supporting elevated evening load, consistent with the forecast price firming into tonight's peak window.
No demand-side market notices are current for Victoria; active notices relate to NSW transfer limits and prior SA intervention events, none of which directly constrain Victorian load-serving capability today.