Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 10 August 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $81.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,251.9 MW and climbing sharply — up from 1,118 MW just 30 minutes earlier as the morning ramp takes hold. This confirms the region's tight demand-price coupling: over the past 24 hours, every push above 1,300 MW has driven prices into the $85-150/MWh band, while troughs below 1,150 MW overnight saw prices collapse to single digits and briefly negative territory (as low as $5.33/MWh at 03:55 AEST yesterday). With demand still accelerating this morning, upward price pressure is likely to persist through the 07:00-09:00 AEST window before easing.

AEMO's dispatch forecasts point to a firm morning peak, with forecast RRP holding near $75-88/MWh through 07:00-10:00 AEST as demand builds toward its daily high. Prices then ease into the $55-75/MWh range across the middle of the day before a pronounced overnight collapse — forecasts show sub-$15/MWh and even negative pricing between 12:00 and 16:00 AEST tonight (i.e., early hours 11 August), consistent with the low-demand trough pattern seen in yesterday's data (demand fell to ~1,100 MW with prices near zero). The standout signal is a forecast price spike to $320.04/MWh from 16:00 AEST tomorrow (11 August) through to at least 18:00 — a sustained four-hour elevated block that traders should watch closely, though this sits beyond today's immediate trading window.

Generation mix is dominated by hydro (1,097.7 MW) with wind contributing 254.26 MW and gas OCGT topping up 124.89 MW, giving a renewable share of 91.54% and carbon intensity of 0.055 tCO2/MWh at the last interval — among the cleanest intervals recorded in the past day. Demand-side conditions are benign: no directions, non-conformance declarations, or constraint invocations affecting TAS1 generators are currently active, and the only regional network notices relate to historical lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on Tasmanian transmission lines, all since cancelled. Cold, low-wind conditions (5.9°C, wind speed just 3.8 km/h, heating demand index 12.1) are supporting the morning demand ramp, with today's forecast max of 13.7°C and low average wind potential (1.1) suggesting hydro will continue carrying the bulk of load through the day.