Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 8 August 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$2.99/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, holding in negative territory for the fourth consecutive half-hour as overnight demand remains soft at 4,728 MW. The region has spent most of the past 24 hours in low-single-digit to negative pricing, punctuated by brief peaks to $38.89/MWh during the Saturday evening ramp (around 07:45 AEST equivalent) — a pattern consistent with strong wind output suppressing marginal price for extended periods.

Generation mix currently shows wind leading supply at 3,050 MW, followed by brown coal at 2,820 MW. Hydro, gas and battery are contributing minimal volume (2 MW, 0.4 MW and 4.3 MW respectively), and solar is at 0 MW given the overnight/pre-dawn period and 100% cloud cover. Wind is effectively matching brown coal generation, underscoring how far renewable penetration has progressed in Victoria's overnight profile. Weather data shows wind potential at just 3.8% currently, but the daily outlook has average wind potential rising to 13.9% today — supply from wind should stay material through the morning.

Carbon intensity reads 0.5854 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 52.01%, continuing a steady overnight pattern that ranged between 0.52 and 0.60 tCO2/MWh. This tracks the inverse relationship between wind output and brown coal dispatch — intensity troughed near 0.52 tCO2/MWh around 02:00 AEST when renewable share peaked above 57%, and it will likely climb again through the day as wind potential is forecast to soften toward the 07:00-12:00 AEST window per predispatch signals.

Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp reversal from current negative pricing: prices stay near zero through the early morning hours but escalate quickly from 07:00 AEST (forecast $34.99/MWh) through a midday peak of $62.77/MWh around 12:00 AEST as demand builds and solar contribution remains capped by cloud cover. Prices are then expected to ease back to the $10-15/MWh range by late afternoon and evening. On notices, no VIC-specific market interventions are active today — the only regional item is a resolved SYTS MLTS 2 line constraint from 1 August. Current market intervention activity is concentrated in SA (voltage-related directions), with no impact on VIC dispatch or interconnector flows expected. Traders should note the identified low-price window from 22:00-23:00 AEST tonight (forecast avg -$4.75/MWh) as the strongest load-shifting opportunity, given zero carbon intensity readings during that interval.