Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 3 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $92.52/MWh at 06:30 AEST, up sharply from overnight negative pricing that saw prices as low as -$6.60/MWh between 03:00 and 05:30 as low demand met strong wind output. Demand has climbed to 6,662 MW as the morning ramp takes hold, and the price trajectory over the past 24 hours shows the typical pattern: sub-zero and near-zero overnight troughs (00:00-05:30), a sharp morning spike through the 90s and above $100/MWh during the 07:00-10:00 ramp, then moderating into the $15-95/MWh range through midday and afternoon before evening demand pushes prices back into the $56-92/MWh band.
Generation mix at the current interval is led by brown coal at 4,565.5 MW, with wind contributing 2,371.1 MW, battery output at 305.8 MW, gas OCGT at 134 MW, and hydro at 45.5 MW. Solar is at 0 MW given the pre-dawn hour. This mix puts renewable penetration at 36.68% and carbon intensity at 0.7622 tCO2/MWh, both improving from the overnight lows where renewable share peaked near 56% and intensity fell to 0.53 tCO2/MWh around 01:25-02:00 as wind generation dominated a low-demand system. As solar remains offline and demand builds toward the morning peak, expect carbon intensity to track higher through the 07:00-09:00 window before easing again if wind holds.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firm price escalation through the morning and into midday. AEMO's forecast trajectory shows $80.59/MWh by 07:00, climbing to $120-135/MWh through the 08:00-11:00 window, and peaking at $146.10/MWh around 12:00 AEST — an unusual midday high likely reflecting tighter renewable output offsetting typical solar contribution, given today's weak solar potential (2.4) and modest wind potential (2.8) in the daily outlook. Prices are forecast to ease back into the $75-90/MWh range through the afternoon and evening as conditions stabilise.
On notices, VIC-specific items are limited to a completed inter-regional transfer limit variation on the South Morang-Sydenham No.1 500kV line from 31 July, and an automated constraint set (CA_SYDS) invoked in late July to manage power system security via the Victoria-SA interconnector, which remains relevant context for interconnector flows. No new VIC-specific market interventions or non-conformance declarations are active today; the bulk of recent notices relate to NSW1 lightning-driven contingency reclassifications and TAS1 network events with no direct VIC1 pricing impact.