Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 7 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST, near the floor after a volatile night that saw prices swing from -$7.28/MWh through to $176.46/MWh over the past 24 hours. Demand currently reads 5,341 MW, down sharply from evening peaks above 7,700 MW on 6 August. The overnight and early morning period has been dominated by negative-to-near-zero pricing, reflecting strong wind output overwhelming demand during low-load hours — a pattern consistent with the past six hours of sub-$1/MWh intervals.
Generation mix is currently wind-led: wind is contributing 3,170 MW, the single largest source, against brown coal at 2,926 MW, hydro at 37 MW, battery discharge at 13 MW, and negligible gas (0.4 MW OCGT, 0 MW CCGT). Solar output is at 0 MW given the pre-dawn hour. This mix puts renewable penetration at 52.4%, its highest point in the past 24 hours, up from lows near 13-17% during Thursday evening's peak-demand, coal-and-gas-heavy period. Carbon intensity has fallen in step, now at 0.581 tCO2/MWh, down from a 24-hour high of 1.022 tCO2/MWh recorded around midnight — tracking closely with wind's rising share of the mix through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts show the low-price, high-renewable window persisting through today. AEMO's forecast has prices holding near zero or negative from now through the early morning (-$6 to -$7/MWh from 04:00-05:00 AEST), a modest bump to $45-59/MWh mid-morning as demand picks up (07:30-09:30 AEST), before falling back toward zero or negative for the remainder of the afternoon into evening, including a forecast -$7.28/MWh by 18:00 AEST. Weather supports this trajectory: today's outlook shows 5.5% average wind potential and cool temperatures (9-15.4°C), with cloud cover at 82% limiting solar contribution. The gridIQ load-shifting model flags five low-cost windows today, most under $0/MWh average, offering savings up to $66/MWh versus peak for flexible loads — though the 06:00-07:00 AEST window carries a "high risk" tag given expected morning demand ramp.
On notices, an inter-regional transfer limit variation remains active from 1 August following a short-notice outage of the South Morang-Sydenham No.1 500kV line, invoking constraint set V-SMSY affecting interconnector flows on T-V-MNSP1, V-S-MNSP1, V-SA and VIC1-NSW1. No new VIC-specific non-conformance or intervention notices have been issued in the past 24 hours; recent market intervention and reclassification notices are concentrated in SA, NSW and TAS regions. Traders should monitor the V-SMSY constraint for any impact on Victoria's export capacity given the current high-wind, negative-price conditions favouring interstate flows.