Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 2 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $10.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6301 MW. The last 24 hours have swung from deeply negative territory overnight — troughing at -$60/MWh between 13:35 and 14:00 AEST amid low demand near 3530-3750 MW — through to a brief morning peak of $54.48/MWh at 17:00 AEST as demand climbed past 5800 MW. The current level is well below yesterday's morning ramp peaks, reflecting the transition from overnight minimum demand into the current shoulder period.
Generation mix at 06:30 AEST is led by brown coal at 3778 MW, with wind contributing 2929 MW, battery output at 333 MW, hydro at 106 MW, and gas OCGT at 44 MW. Solar sits at 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Total renewable penetration (wind, hydro, solar, battery contribution) is 46.85%, with grid carbon intensity at 0.645 tCO2/MWh — both figures little changed from the 47-49% renewable range seen through the previous evening's carbon readings, though intensity has ticked up slightly as wind output eases from higher overnight levels.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trajectory through the morning: prices lift to $31.89/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then step up sharply through the 07:30-08:30 window to $54.48, $83.48, and $90.18/MWh respectively, before peaking near $98.30/MWh at 09:30 AEST. A second, sharper peak is forecast for the late morning, with prices holding in the $83-94/MWh band from 10:00 to 12:00 AEST — consistent with typical winter morning demand ramp dynamics as cloud cover (47% average) limits solar contribution and wind potential remains moderate at 4.2%. Prices are then forecast to ease back to the $10-36/MWh range through the afternoon and evening.
On notices, VIC-specific items include an automated constraint set (CA_SYDS series) invoked to manage power system security on the V-S-MNSP1 and V-SA interconnector flows, still active from late July, alongside a since-resolved negative settlement residue event on the VIC-SA interconnector on 28 July. No new VIC-specific credible contingency reclassifications are active today; the current wave of lightning-related reclassifications sits in TAS1, affecting Sheffield-George Town and Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton lines, which may indirectly affect Basslink-related flows into VIC1 if conditions persist. Traders should watch the 07:00-12:00 AEST window closely given the sharp forecast price escalation into triple digits.