Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 4 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $115.77/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of an overnight range that oscillated between $30-160/MWh, with demand at 6,522 MW and climbing into the morning ramp. Prices spiked to $160.17/MWh at 17:00 AEST yesterday evening and have held above $110/MWh through most of today's early trading, roughly 40-50% above the $56-75/MWh troughs seen overnight between 08:00-11:00 AEST.
Generation mix at the current interval shows brown coal dominating at 4,571 MW (the largest single source), followed by wind at 1,343 MW, gas OCGT at 411 MW, hydro at 265 MW, and battery output at 90 MW. Solar is negligible at 0.19 MW given the pre-dawn timing, and gas CCGT sits at zero. Renewable penetration reads 25.41%, down from overnight highs near 44% as wind generation eased and coal/gas picked up the demand ramp. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.8749 tCO2/MWh, continuing an upward trend from the 0.67-0.70 tCO2/MWh range seen in the early morning hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through today's peak: forecast RRP climbs to $176-287/MWh across the 07:30-08:30 AEST window, then surges to $354-445/MWh between 09:00-10:00 AEST before moderating to $167-320/MWh through midday. A secondary peak near $289/MWh appears around 12:30 AEST, with prices settling back to the $95-130/MWh band by mid-afternoon and evening. Traders should note the load-shifting windows identified overnight (00:30-06:30 AEST) offered savings of $350-374/MWh versus today's peak pricing — those windows have now passed, reinforcing the value of tomorrow's early-morning low-price periods for flexible load.
On notices, an automated constraint set (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) remains active in NSW1 affecting the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector, invoked since 08:15 AEST yesterday — this has flow-on implications for interconnector capacity into VIC1. No VIC-specific credible contingency events are currently active, though a prior transfer limit variation on the South Morang-Sydenham No.1 500kV line (31 July) and VIC region security constraints on V-S-MNSP1/V-SA (28-29 July) illustrate ongoing management of Victoria's interconnection with SA and NSW. Weather today brings cool conditions (7.9-12.8°C), low wind potential (2.0 average) and moderate solar potential (4.4 average), consistent with the subdued wind contribution driving today's lower renewable share and higher price volatility.