Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 6 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $127.67/MWh as at 6:30am AEST, tracking below yesterday evening's peak of $281.23/MWh but above the overnight trough of $24.68/MWh. Demand currently sits at 6,353 MW, having recovered from an overnight low near 5,370 MW as the morning ramp builds. Prices have been broadly range-bound between $90-140/MWh through the evening period, a notable step-down from Wednesday evening's volatility when the market touched $280/MWh during the 7:20-7:45pm demand peak.
Generation mix at the current interval is led by brown coal at 4,320 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 495 MW, battery storage at 551 MW, hydro at 344 MW, and wind at just 99 MW. Solar is at zero, consistent with the pre-dawn interval. Renewable penetration sits at 17.1%, which is a partial recovery from the overnight low of 3.9% recorded around 7:00pm AEST — Victoria's renewable share has swung between roughly 4% and 37% over the past 24 hours depending on wind availability and time of day. Carbon intensity is currently 0.963 tCO2/MWh, down from a peak of 1.143 tCO2/MWh reached during yesterday evening's low-wind, high-demand window, but still elevated relative to the overnight minimum of 0.753 tCO2/MWh reached around 3-4am when wind and hydro contribution was higher.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firmer session ahead, with prices projected to lift toward $130-144/MWh through the 7-8am period before a sharp spike to $211/MWh forecast for the 8:30am interval, likely reflecting a tightening supply-demand balance during the morning peak. A second, larger spike to $183/MWh is forecast around 11am. Prices are then expected to collapse into the afternoon, with forecasts showing near-zero pricing ($0.12-$10.50/MWh) from 2pm through 6:30pm, coinciding with the AEMO load-shifting window that flags savings up to $211/MWh versus peak for flexible load shifted into that afternoon trough. Today's weather outlook shows minimal solar potential (2.5% average) and light wind (0.3% average) under 66% cloud cover, with temperatures ranging 9.8-14°C — conditions that will keep renewable contribution modest through the day.
On notices, VIC-specific items are limited to an inter-regional transfer constraint from 1 August affecting the South Morang-Sydenham 500kV line, which remains relevant to interconnector flows with NSW. No active VIC-specific market interventions or directions are in place. The most recent system-wide notice of note is a QLD contingency reclassification issued 6 August with no direct VIC impact.