Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 1 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$1.15/MWh at 06:30 AEST, holding in negative territory after a night dominated by strong wind output. Demand reads 5,228 MW, well below yesterday evening's peak above 7,200 MW. The past 24 hours have swung widely — from a peak near $106/MWh during Friday evening's demand ramp down to sustained negative and near-zero prices overnight (many 5-minute intervals between -$12/MWh and -$1/MWh) as wind generation pushed above 3,000 MW into low overnight demand. This morning's predispatch curve points to continued softness, with forecast prices at -$1.10 to $0.15/MWh through midday, dipping to -$60/MWh around 14:00-14:30 AEST before recovering modestly into the evening. Five load-shifting windows are flagged for today, the strongest being 14:00-15:00 AEST at an average -$61.68/MWh, saving $79/MWh against typical peak pricing.
Generation mix at 20:25 AEST (UTC) shows brown coal at 3,246 MW and wind at 3,102 MW as the two largest contributors, followed by hydro at 46 MW. Solar reads 0 MW given the pre-dawn interval, gas (CCGT and OCGT) is negligible, and battery output is minimal at 0.02 MW. This gives a renewable penetration of 49.2%, the highest point in the past 24 hours, up from a low of 11.6% at the same time yesterday evening. Carbon intensity has fallen to 0.619 tCO2/MWh, down sharply from 1.065 tCO2/MWh 24 hours earlier, tracking the overnight wind ramp.
On notices, AEMO's automated constraint sets (CA_SYDS series) affecting the V-S-MNSP1 and V-SA interconnector equations remain active for VIC region security management, alongside a short-notice outage of the South Morang-Sydenham No.1 500kV line and a further transfer limit variation on the SYTS MLTS 2 line/SMTS 2 line CB affecting VIC-NSW and VIC-SA flows. Negative settlement residue constraints on the VIC-SA directional interconnector have been triggered and cancelled multiple times in the past week, consistent with the frequent negative pricing intervals. Traders should watch the 06:00-07:00 AEST window today, where predispatch still shows negative pricing (-$14.57/MWh forecast) despite rising demand, reflecting the current wind surplus working through the system.