Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 8 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at -$3.16/MWh at 06:30 AEST, continuing an extended run of negative and near-zero pricing that has defined the overnight period. Prices have ranged from -$7.97/MWh to $88.24/MWh over the past 24 hours, with the vast majority of intervals trading below $20/MWh. Demand currently sits at 1071 MW, tracking within the typical overnight range of 995-1310 MW seen since yesterday evening's peak.
Generation mix shows hydro dominant at 415 MW, wind contributing 209 MW, and gas OCGT filling the balance at 124 MW. This mix underpins a renewable penetration rate of 83.45%, consistent with the 80-91% band Tasmania has held throughout the day. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.1076 tCO2/MWh, up slightly from the intraday low of 0.0575 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30 AEST when renewable penetration peaked at 91.16%. Overnight troughs in renewable share (81-83%) correspond with periods of higher gas OCGT dispatch to firm the hydro-wind base.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding near zero to slightly negative through the early morning (targeting -$0.10 to -$6.77/MWh into the 04:00-08:00 AEST window), before lifting through the morning as demand builds. The forecast trajectory shows a firming trend from $10/MWh at 17:00 UTC target through to a peak near $59.55/MWh around 22:00 UTC (08:00 AEST tomorrow), with elevated prices in the $36-50/MWh range persisting through the midday period before easing back to $12-19/MWh by evening. Traders should note this reflects a stronger midday price signal than typically seen, likely tied to lower solar potential (5.6% average) and cloud cover (80%) forecast for today.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 generation or network capacity today. Recent contingency reclassifications on Tasmanian transmission lines (Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, Burnie-Port Latta corridors) tied to early-August lightning activity have all been cancelled and reverted to non-credible status. Current notices of relevance are concentrated in SA (voltage-related intervention and contingency reclassification) and do not carry direct implications for Basslink flows or TAS1 pricing today.