Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 6 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $115.20/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile overnight range that saw prices spike to $450.08/MWh briefly around 13:00 AEST yesterday before collapsing to lows near $30-35/MWh in the early hours. Demand currently reads 1,269 MW, up from an overnight trough of roughly 1,050 MW, consistent with the morning ramp. Over the past 24 hours prices have swung from sub-$40/MWh overnight troughs to over $250/MWh during the evening peak on 5 August, reflecting typical Tasmanian volatility driven by hydro dispatch decisions and interconnector flows with Victoria via Basslink.
Generation mix is currently hydro-dominant: hydro is contributing 1,341 MW, wind adding 122 MW, and gas OCGT filling out 207 MW. This puts renewable penetration at 87.6%, with carbon intensity at a low 0.0806 tCO2/MWh — among the cleanest in the NEM. Carbon intensity has ranged between 0.050 and 0.093 tCO2/MWh over the past day, tracking inversely with gas OCGT dispatch; renewable share has dipped as low as 84.5% during periods of higher thermal backup and peaked above 92% in low-demand overnight windows.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility today. Prices are expected to firm through the morning, with forecasts showing $119-190/MWh into the 08:30-09:00 AEST window and a spike to $189.61/MWh flagged around 08:30 AEST. A second elevated period is forecast near 11:00 AEST at $165.08/MWh. Prices are then expected to collapse sharply into the afternoon, with forecasts showing near-zero to single-digit $/MWh readings between 14:00 and 18:00 AEST — as low as $0.12/MWh at 16:30 AEST — indicating strong hydro/wind output outpacing demand. Overnight troughs of $35-55/MWh are forecast to persist into early tomorrow morning, consistent with load-shifting windows identified for 01:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow offering savings of $135-147/MWh versus peak.
No active market notices are specific to Tasmania today; the most recent TAS1-related notices (lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on transmission lines including Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, and Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton) were all cancelled by 3 August with no new issues since. Current active notices affecting the broader NEM include a QLD credible contingency reclassification at Nebo SVC and ongoing NSW inter-regional transfer constraints — neither directly impacts Tasmanian dispatch conditions today. Weather remains cold and clear, with temperatures at 3.2°C, low wind potential (5.9 km/h), and minimal cloud cover, supporting steady heating demand through the day.