Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 7 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $0.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a stark contrast to the region's overnight morning peak of $158.44/MWh recorded around 08:55 AEST yesterday. The past 24 hours show extreme volatility typical of TAS1 — prices ranged from a low of -$0.97/MWh to that $158.44/MWh spike, with the market swinging through triple-digit prices during the 06:00-14:00 AEST window before collapsing toward zero and negative territory through the afternoon and evening as demand eased and renewable output dominated the stack. Current demand of 1,092 MW is running below the 1,300-1,420 MW range seen during yesterday's evening peak.
Generation mix at the current interval shows hydro contributing 594.55 MW (the dominant source), wind adding 48.01 MW, and gas OCGT supplying 124.38 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 83.78%, consistent with the 85-90% band Tasmania has tracked through most of the past 24 hours, dipping to a low of ~81% during last evening's demand ramp. Carbon intensity reads 0.1054 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.0626 tCO2/MWh — the gas OCGT contribution is lifting intensity modestly as hydro dispatch is optimised around price signals rather than running flat-out.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding near zero through the morning, with a brief firming to $19.44/MWh around 09:00 AEST before falling into negative territory (-$4.54 to -$7.62/MWh) from late morning through the afternoon and into the evening. This reflects abundant hydro and wind supply against soft weekend demand — weather data shows minimal wind potential (2.2 km/h current wind speed) and negligible solar potential today under 98% cloud cover, meaning hydro dispatch flexibility is the key price driver rather than variable renewables. Identified negative-price load-shifting windows cluster in the 01:00-05:00 AEST and 16:00-18:30 AEST periods, offering savings of $22-27/MWh versus peak for flexible load.
On notices, there are no active TAS1-specific market interventions or non-conformances currently in effect — the most recent Tasmania-relevant entries relate to cancelled lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on transmission lines (Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, Ulverstone-Emu Bay, Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton) from 2-3 August, all since resolved. No outstanding constraints are affecting Basslink or intraregional transfer capability today.