Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 4 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $105.09/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking above the region's overnight average of roughly $75-90/MWh seen through the early hours of trading. Demand has climbed to 1231 MW, up from a low near 976 MW in mid-afternoon yesterday, consistent with the morning demand ramp. Prices have been volatile through the session, oscillating between $30/MWh and $145/MWh over the past 24 hours, with a brief spike to $145.07/MWh at 17:00 AEST yesterday during the evening peak.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1232.78 MW, comfortably covering local demand, with wind contributing 69.28 MW and gas OCGT adding 237.36 MW to the stack. Renewable penetration reads at 84.58%, keeping carbon intensity low at 0.1002 tCO2/MWh. Intensity has crept up from lows of 0.058 tCO2/MWh overnight as gas peaking capacity has been dispatched to meet the morning ramp — renewable share has eased from over 90% overnight to the mid-80s as a result.
Predispatch forecasts point to a significant price escalation ahead: after easing to $67-70/MWh in the early morning window (00:00-01:00 AEST), prices are forecast to climb sharply through the morning peak, reaching $252.65/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking at $398.49/MWh at 10:00 AEST. This aligns with tightening hydro dispatch and rising demand. Prices are expected to moderate through the afternoon, settling back to the $85-105/MWh range by mid-afternoon. Traders should note the identified low-price windows between 01:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow, averaging $67-88/MWh, offering load-shifting opportunities with savings of $310-330/MWh versus the forecast peak.
No active market notices specific to TAS1 currently affect operations — recent regional notices relate to cancelled lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, and Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton lines, all since reverted to non-credible status. Broader NEM notices include an active NSW1 inter-regional transfer constraint (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) with no direct TAS1 impact. Weather today shows cold conditions (3.6-13.6°C), moderate cloud cover, and negligible wind potential (0.2), reinforcing hydro's role as the primary generation source through the day.