Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 29 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $120.17/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the sub-$10/MWh trough that persisted through the overnight low-demand period (00:00–05:00 AEST). Prices have climbed steadily through the morning ramp, from single digits at 05:00 through the $90-120/MWh band by 08:00-09:00, tracking demand's rise from ~1000 MW overnight to 1308 MW currently. This morning's pattern mirrors yesterday's trajectory, where prices spiked into the $100-126/MWh range through mid-morning trading before easing into the $70-100/MWh band for the afternoon and evening.
Generation mix is hydro-dominated, with 1291 MW from hydro, 194 MW from wind, and 207 MW from gas OCGT, putting hydro at roughly 76% of total output. Renewable penetration sits at 87.8%, down from the low-90s% typical of Tasmania overnight when hydro and wind alone cover demand without gas peaking support. Carbon intensity is 0.0795 tCO2/MWh, elevated from the 0.044-0.048 tCO2/MWh range seen through most of yesterday — the increase tracks directly with gas OCGT dispatch as generators respond to the morning demand ramp and price signal.
Predispatch forecasts point to significant volatility ahead. Prices are forecast to spike to $282/MWh by 22:00 AEST this evening before easing into the $80-150/MWh band overnight, then surging again tomorrow morning with forecasts reaching $481/MWh at 09:00 AEST and $357/MWh at 11:00 AEST on 30 July — consistent with tight reserve conditions and cold, low-solar, low-wind conditions (current wind potential is just 1.1%, solar 0%, temperature 5.6°C). Trading desks should note the identified low-price window between 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, averaging $82-131/MWh, representing the most favourable load-shifting opportunity, saving up to $400/MWh versus the afternoon peak.
On notices, there's no Tasmania-specific market intervention or reserve condition currently active. Regional flows via Basslink are noteworthy: negative settlement residues on the TAS-VIC interconnector triggered constraint NRM_TAS1_VIC1 on 27 July, since resolved. SA continues to carry multiple LOR1/LOR2 reserve notices for 29 July trading, which don't directly affect TAS1 pricing but are worth monitoring given interconnector linkages through VIC. No non-conformance declarations currently affect Tasmanian generating units.