Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 31 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $92.07/MWh at 06:30 AEST, sitting well below the extreme volatility seen earlier in the trading window when prices spiked to $478.08/MWh around 07:30 last evening (07:30 UTC = 17:30 AEST) as demand peaked near 1,500 MW. Prices have since eased significantly through overnight trade, tracking mostly in the $65-95/MWh band from midnight onward as demand tapered to current levels of 1,144 MW. This morning's evening peak volatility reflects Tasmania's typical winter demand pattern, with total demand having ranged between roughly 1,050 MW and 1,500 MW over the past 24 hours.
Generation mix is heavily hydro-based, with hydro contributing 1,248.51 MW, wind adding 133.84 MW, and gas OCGT supplying 124.11 MW at the latest interval — a total of roughly 1,506 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 91.76%, and carbon intensity is 0.0536 tCO2/MWh, among the lowest of any NEM region. This tracks consistently with the past 24 hours, where renewable share has ranged between 84% and 92% depending on gas dispatch, with intensity fluctuating between 0.050 and 0.102 tCO2/MWh as OCGT output varies with demand peaks.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price collapse through the day. Prices are expected to ease to $64.84/MWh by 09:00 AEST, then fall into negative and near-zero territory from 10:00 AEST through the early afternoon, with forecasts showing -$1.21/MWh at 12:30 AEST and troughs near $0-10/MWh persisting until around 16:00-17:00 AEST. A modest recovery is forecast into the evening peak, with prices climbing back to $91.87-94.03/MWh by 18:00-19:00 AEST as demand rebuilds. Weather data supports this trajectory — cold conditions (3.9°C, 96% cloud cover) suppress solar potential to near zero today, while wind potential remains low at 2.3, reinforcing hydro's dominant role. Identified low-price windows between 01:30-06:00 AEST tomorrow (02:30-03:30 AEST showing -$0.82/MWh average) offer strong load-shifting opportunities for flexible demand.
No notices directly affecting TAS1 operations are currently active. The most recent Tasmania-specific market notice relates to a negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_TAS1_VIC1) on the TAS-VIC Basslink interconnector from 27 July, since ceased. Current active notices are concentrated in SA, VIC, and NSW covering interconnector transfer limits and reserve conditions, with no direct implications for Tasmanian dispatch today.