Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 3 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.24/MWh at 06:30 AEST, holding at the price cap-adjacent level that's recurred through the morning ramp as demand climbs to 1234 MW. This is a sharp reversal from the negative pricing seen overnight — the region traded as low as -$6.96/MWh between 03:00 and 05:30 AEST as low demand met high hydro availability, before the morning demand ramp pushed prices up through the $70s and into the high $80s/low $90s from 06:00 AEST onward.
Generation is currently 88% hydro (1167 MW), with gas OCGT contributing 125 MW (9%) and wind a modest 15 MW (1%). This mix is delivering a carbon intensity of 0.0622 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration of 90.4% — consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-dominant profile. Carbon intensity has tightened from a high of 0.108 tCO2/MWh around 03:00-04:00 AEST (when gas ran harder to cover the demand trough) down to current levels as hydro output firms through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts show prices retreating to the $50s-$70s range through this evening (22:00-23:30 AEST at $53-55/MWh) before easing further overnight to a trough near $10-15/MWh around 01:00-01:30 AEST tomorrow — consistent with the low-demand, high-hydro overnight pattern. However, tomorrow's morning ramp is forecast to be materially firmer than today's, with prices climbing from $74/MWh at 07:00 AEST to a peak of $131.69/MWh at 12:00 midday, well above today's comparable levels. Traders should note the sustained $110-122/MWh band forecast from 08:00 through 13:30 AEST tomorrow.
On notices, three TAS1-specific contingency reclassifications (Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, and Ulverstone-Emu Bay lines) were issued and subsequently cancelled overnight due to lightning activity, with all reverting to non-credible status by mid-morning — no sustained network constraints remain active in the region. No AEMO interventions or non-conformance declarations are currently affecting Tasmania. Weather conditions show cold, low-wind conditions (4.1°C, 5.1 km/h wind), with wind potential remaining negligible through the outlook period until a modest pickup forecast for 9 August.