Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 2 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $30.57/MWh at 20:30 AEST, tracking within a volatile band that ranged from -$15.01/MWh overnight to a $56.79/MWh morning spike around 07:00. Demand currently reads 1,169.6 MW. Overnight negative pricing (extended stretches below -$14/MWh between 02:00-05:00) reflects minimal demand against strong hydro availability, while the 07:00-09:00 morning ramp pushed prices into the $30-56/MWh range as demand climbed past 1,280 MW.
Generation mix is running at 912.44 MW hydro, 271.68 MW wind, and 124.38 MW gas (OCGT), totalling 1,308.5 MW output. Renewable penetration sits at 90.49%, consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-wind dominance. Carbon intensity reads 0.0618 tCO2/MWh, near the low end of today's range — intensity peaked overnight near 0.147 tCO2/MWh (04:00 AEST) as renewable share dipped to 77.3% during low-wind, high-hydro-conservation hours, before recovering through the morning as wind and hydro output firmed.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp overnight price fall, with several intervals between 01:30-05:30 AEST tomorrow forecast in negative territory (-$1 to -$2.74/MWh) on minimal demand, consistent with the load-shifting windows flagged for that period (all rated low risk, saving up to $91/MWh vs peak). However, the trajectory steepens sharply from 07:00 AEST, with forecast prices climbing to $64-89/MWh through the 08:00-12:00 window — a notably firmer morning peak than today's equivalent, likely reflecting tighter interconnector flows or lower wind forecast (wind potential is forecast at just 0.4 for tomorrow, easing further to 0.1 by 05 August).
Several active AEMO notices affect TAS1 network security: contingency reclassifications due to lightning activity remain in place for the Sheffield-George Town 220kV lines and Ulverstone-Emu Bay/Sheffield-Paloona-Ulverstone 110kV lines (both reclassified as credible contingency events from 03/08 05:09-05:19 AEST), while the Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton 110kV lines had their lightning-related reclassification cancelled as at 05:24 AEST. These constraints don't currently carry invoked constraint sets but warrant monitoring given the forecast price firmness tomorrow morning.