Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 5 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $158.95/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the sub-$100/MWh levels seen through the overnight trough but off the $247/MWh spike recorded around 15:50-16:00 AEST yesterday evening. Demand is running at 1,301 MW, tracking the typical morning ramp. Over the past 24 hours, prices have oscillated widely — from a low of $13.24/MWh during a brief 16:35-16:45 window yesterday afternoon to peaks above $220/MWh during the evening ramp — reflecting hydro dispatch flexibility responding to price signals rather than any supply constraint.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,349.89 MW, with wind contributing 81.75 MW and gas OCGT filling 207.57 MW. This puts renewable penetration at 87.34%, consistent with Tasmania's typical hydro-heavy profile. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0823 tCO2/MWh, near the low end of today's range — intensity has held between 0.08-0.12 tCO2/MWh over the past 24 hours, tracking inversely with renewable share as gas peaking capacity flexes in and out to cover demand peaks.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing significantly overnight, with troughs near $40-50/MWh between 00:00 and 05:00 AEST tonight as demand falls and hydro/wind cover the load. However, the outlook firms materially into tomorrow's morning and midday peak — forecasts show prices climbing to $141-178/MWh through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window and spiking as high as $249/MWh around 13:00-13:30 AEST tomorrow, before easing back to the $100-150/MWh band by evening. This pattern presents clear load-shifting opportunities: the identified low-price windows between 01:00-06:30 AEST tonight offer savings of $190-201/MWh versus peak pricing, all at zero carbon intensity given the renewable-heavy overnight mix.
On notices, TAS1 has seen a run of lightning-related contingency reclassifications and cancellations across several 110kV and 220kV lines (Norwood-Scottsdale, Palmerston-Hadspen, Sheffield-George Town, Ulverstone-Emu Bay, Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton) over the past few days, all since reverted to non-credible status with no constraint sets currently active. No active market interventions or directions affect Tasmania today. Weather conditions show cold, overcast conditions (5.2°C, 93% cloud cover, minimal solar potential) with light wind (7.2 km/h), reinforcing hydro's dominant role in today's generation mix.