Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 8 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$6.25/MWh at 6:30am AEST, deep in negative territory as strong overnight wind generation continues to outpace demand of 1,318 MW. This extends a pattern seen through most of the past 24 hours, with prices oscillating between roughly -$12 and +$54/MWh — negative pricing dominated the overnight trough (00:00-05:30 AEST) while a brief morning demand ramp pushed prices up to $30-54/MWh around 6:40-8:45am before easing back. The current print is consistent with the broader trend of SA regularly clearing below zero when wind output is high relative to demand.
Generation mix is heavily wind-dominated: wind is contributing 1,708 MW, gas CCGT 84 MW, gas OCGT 0.11 MW, batteries 2.35 MW (net discharge), and solar at 0 MW given the pre-dawn interval and 100% cloud cover. Renewable penetration sits at 95.3% and carbon intensity is 0.023 tCO2/MWh — both near the cleaner end of SA's typical range, though intensity has crept up slightly from the 0.010-0.012 tCO2/MWh band seen through the middle of the day yesterday as wind eased and gas CCGT output rose modestly overnight.
Predispatch forecasts show prices staying negative or near-zero through the early morning (-$6.25/MWh at 9am, -$6/MWh at 10am), before firming into positive territory from 7am AEST as demand ramps: $6.21/MWh at 5pm UTC (7am AEST), climbing to $17-31/MWh by 8-10am and peaking near $60/MWh around 10pm UTC (12pm AEST) on the back of forecast midday demand and lower wind potential (8.1% average wind potential forecast for today, well down from recent days). Prices are then forecast to ease back to slightly negative territory (-$1/MWh) by early evening. Today's weather outlook shows minimal solar contribution (0.5% average potential) under 97% cloud cover, meaning wind and gas will carry the bulk of generation through midday.
Several active AEMO notices are relevant to SA today. A credible contingency reclassification remains in force for the Brinkworth-Davenport, Brinkworth-Templers West and Para-Templers West 275kV lines due to a severe weather warning (effective from 5:15pm yesterday, until further notice). AEMO also issued a direction to a SA participant under an active intervention event commencing from the interval ending 3:35pm yesterday, and has flagged a foreseeable intervention circumstance related to voltage from 5:00am today, with a further market response window closing at 3:30pm yesterday. Traders and grid engineers should monitor for updated directions given the combination of severe weather, voltage management, and low wind potential forecast for later today.