Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 7 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST, effectively flat and continuing a run of near-zero and negative pricing that has held since roughly 03:00 AEST. This is a sharp reversal from evening peak conditions on 6-7 August, when prices ran $100-167/MWh between 06:30-08:30 AEST as demand climbed above 1,800 MW. Demand currently sits at 1,377 MW, moderate for the overnight/early morning period.
Generation is almost entirely wind-driven: wind is contributing 1,556 MW, gas CCGT 44.7 MW, batteries 9.0 MW, gas OCGT 0.1 MW, and solar at 0 MW (pre-dawn). Renewable penetration reads 97.2%, among the highest levels seen in the current data window, up from 32-40% during yesterday evening's demand peak when wind output was lower and gas ran harder to cover the gap. Carbon intensity is correspondingly low at 0.0136 tCO2/MWh, a substantial drop from the 0.32-0.38 tCO2/MWh range recorded during yesterday's evening peak.
Predispatch forecasts show prices staying depressed through the day: mostly negative to low-single-digit $/MWh out to 18:00 AEST, with brief positive spikes to $22-29/MWh around 08:00-09:30 AEST as morning demand builds, before dropping back into negative territory ($-5 to -7/MWh) through midday and afternoon. This aligns with the load-shifting windows flagged for 03:00-08:00 AEST tomorrow, all rated low-risk with $34-35/MWh savings versus peak, reflecting sustained wind output against weak solar (cloud cover at 100% currently, easing only slightly to 89% average today). Wind potential firms further into next week per the outlook, with 10 August-11 August showing wind potential above 13-20%.
No SA-specific notices are currently active beyond historical entries — the most recent SA market intervention (AGL Torrens Island directions, 1-2 August) and the non-credible contingency event at Torrens Island B were cancelled/resolved by 2 August. Current active notices are concentrated in QLD1 (non-conformance, MPP_1 and STAN-1 units) and NSW1 (contingency reclassifications), with no bearing on SA dispatch today.