Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 3 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $102.66/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from overnight lows that touched negative territory (-$5.98/MWh around 15:00 AEST yesterday afternoon as low demand met strong renewable output). Demand currently reads 1558.72 MW, having climbed off an overnight trough near 920 MW. The price has been volatile through the evening peak, ranging between $80-145/MWh since 18:00 AEST as wind generation eased and the region leaned more heavily on gas.
Generation mix at the current interval shows GAS_OCGT at 324.86 MW and GAS_CCGT at 290.53 MW combining for 615 MW of gas-fired output, wind contributing 239.56 MW, battery discharge at 31.09 MW, and solar at 0 MW given the after-dark interval. Renewable penetration sits at 30.55%, a marked step down from the 85-92% levels recorded overnight when wind generation was strong and demand was low. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.399 tCO2/MWh, up from lows of 0.039-0.043 tCO2/MWh in the early hours, tracking the shift from wind-dominated overnight supply to gas-dominated evening supply.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trajectory overnight into tomorrow, with prices easing to the $80-105/MWh band through the evening before dropping into the $13-53/MWh range between 01:00 and 06:00 AEST as demand falls and wind is expected to pick up (weekend outlook shows wind potential rising toward 36% by 9 August). However, tomorrow's morning peak forecast is notably firm, with predispatch showing a steep climb from $89.78/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $170.44/MWh by midday, and remaining elevated near $137-155/MWh through the early afternoon — consistent with weak solar potential (avg 0.2% today) under heavy cloud cover (96% currently, easing to 62% tomorrow) and cool temperatures (6.7-12.6°C) driving heating demand.
On notices, SA-specific market intervention events from 1-2 August have been cancelled, including the AEMO Intervention Event cancelled at 15:30 hrs on 2 August and directions to AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island B units (TORRB2/TORRB3), which were issued for voltage support and later cancelled once system conditions stabilised. A non-credible contingency event at City West 275/66kV transformer on 30 July has no follow-up updates, suggesting resolution. No active SA-specific constraints are currently listed, though the Tailem Bend to South East 275kV line outage that ran through early August affected inter-regional transfer limits with Victoria — traders should watch for any residual impact on interconnector flows given SA's reliance on Heywood/Murraylink for price support during low-wind periods.