Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 14 September 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $69.18/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking above the overnight trough but consistent with the region's typical volatility. Prices ranged from a low of $5.23/MWh around 18:10 AEST yesterday evening to spikes above $150/MWh in the prior evening peak (13 September, 22:15 AEST), reflecting SA's characteristic price swings driven by wind variability and thin synchronous generation margins. Demand currently sits at 1,380 MW, mid-range for the diurnal cycle.
Generation mix right now is wind-dominated: wind is contributing 987.82 MW, easily the largest source, followed by gas OCGT at 168.28 MW, batteries at 165.88 MW (discharging), and gas CCGT at 102.82 MW. Solar output is at 0 MW, consistent with the current evening/pre-dawn window. Renewable penetration reads 80.97%, and carbon intensity is 0.1121 tCO2/MWh — both broadly in line with the past 24 hours, where intensity ranged from a low of 0.0647 tCO2/MWh overnight (high wind, low demand) to a high of 0.2224 tCO2/MWh around 09:00 AEST yesterday when wind eased and gas plant picked up load.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp swing into negative pricing overnight: forecast RRP falls to -$50.60/MWh by 04:00 AEST, with several intervals between 22:00 and 06:00 AEST sitting in the -$20 to -$30/MWh range on the back of strong wind output and low demand. Prices then recover firmly through the morning ramp, with forecasts reaching $101.02/MWh by 09:00 AEST and holding in the $80-98/MWh band through the middle of the day before easing to $64.62/MWh by 18:00 AEST. This pattern aligns with identified load-shifting windows — the best being 03:30-04:30 AEST at an average -$44.81/MWh, saving approximately $146/MWh versus peak pricing.
Several active AEMO notices are relevant. A direction remains in place to AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island B4 unit, requiring it to synchronise and follow dispatch targets from 07:30 AEST today through until 16:00 AEST, issued to maintain adequate voltage control in the region — this is a recurring pattern, with similar directions issued on 11, 13, and 14 September. AEMO has also flagged a foreseeable intervention risk from 09:30 AEST today due to voltage conditions. Separately, a Minimum System Load MSL1 condition is forecast for 19 September between 12:00 and 14:30 AEST, with minimum demand projected at -111 MW at 13:30 AEST — traders should note this reflects the region's ongoing rooftop solar-driven minimum demand challenge and AEMO is seeking market response ahead of that date.