Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 11 September 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $91.40/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,268 MW. Overnight prices swung sharply — from a peak of $155.51/MWh around 07:00 AEST last night down to negative territory (-$59/MWh) in the early hours as wind generation surged and demand troughed below 100 MW. The current price sits mid-range of that 24-hour band, tracking the morning demand ramp as load climbs off overnight lows.
Generation mix is heavily wind-weighted this morning: wind is contributing 1,027 MW, gas CCGT 41 MW, batteries a marginal 2.3 MW net, and solar at zero ahead of sunrise. Renewable penetration sits at 96.16%, with carbon intensity at just 0.0188 tCO2/MWh — among the cleanest intervals recorded in the past 24 hours. This compares with a low of 42.95% renewable penetration and carbon intensity as high as 0.33 tCO2/MWh during yesterday's 08:20 AEST peak, when gas plant ran harder to cover the morning demand ramp. Today's weather outlook shows moderate solar potential (29.4% average) and light wind (0.9% average), suggesting the current high wind output may taper through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile day ahead. Prices are expected to ease to $85.99/MWh by 07:30 AEST, then collapse into negative territory from 08:00 AEST through the afternoon, bottoming near -$50/MWh around 12:00 AEST as wind and rooftop solar oversupply the region. A brief recovery is forecast into the evening peak, with prices climbing back to $94-98/MWh between 18:00-19:30 AEST before easing again. Identified low-price windows between 01:00-06:00 AEST offer load-shifting opportunities with savings up to $138/MWh versus peak.
Three active AEMO notices are relevant. AEMO issued a direction to AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island B4 unit, requiring it to synchronise and follow dispatch targets from 09:00 AEST today through 16:30 AEST, addressing a forecast voltage control shortfall — a recurring pattern in SA given the low count of synchronous generators online during high-renewable periods. A related market intervention event has been declared for the SA region, with all trading intervals during this window classified as intervention intervals (though intervention pricing does not apply). Traders should watch for further directions or a cancellation notice once sufficient synchronous plant is secured.