Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 9 September 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $96.60/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, continuing a steady climb through this morning's evening peak after an overnight stretch that spent most of the past 24 hours in negative territory, including troughs near -$100/MWh during the 06:40-06:45 AEST window on 9 September. Demand has tracked the price recovery, up to 1,527 MW from a low of around 489 MW overnight. The pattern is typical for SA: abundant wind pushes prices negative in low-demand overnight periods, then tightens sharply as evening demand builds while solar drops away.
Generation mix at the latest interval is wind-dominated: 1,606 MW of wind, 43 MW gas CCGT, 13 MW battery discharge, 0.1 MW gas OCGT, and no solar output (post-sunset). Wind alone is supplying roughly 96% of total generation. This lifts renewable penetration to 97.4% and drives carbon intensity down to 0.0128 tCO2/MWh, near the lowest readings of the past 24 hours. Intensity has ranged between 0.011 and 0.056 tCO2/MWh over the day, with the higher readings coinciding with the morning demand ramp when gas plant carried more of the load before wind output firmed.
Predispatch forecasts show prices firming further into tonight's peak, reaching $112.85/MWh at 21:30 AEST before falling away sharply overnight — dropping to near zero by 23:00, then deeply negative from 00:00 through 07:00 AEST tomorrow, including forecast troughs of -$90.67/MWh at 04:30 and -$82.29/MWh at 04:00. Prices are then forecast to snap back above $100/MWh through tomorrow's 08:00-12:30 AEST window as demand rises against a low-wind forecast (average wind potential just 0.4 for 10 September). Identified low-cost load windows tomorrow morning between 02:00 and 07:00 AEST offer $130-199/MWh savings versus peak, useful for flexible load shifting.
Several active AEMO notices are relevant. A market intervention (direction) remains in place for SA region from the interval ending 17:05 on 9 September, with intervention pricing not applying. AEMO has also flagged a foreseeable intervention circumstance for SA from 10:00 AEST today (10 September) due to voltage conditions, with a market response requested by 17:00 yesterday to avoid a formal direction. This follows a pattern of recurring voltage-related directions to AGL's Torrens Island units over the past week, reflecting reduced synchronous generation availability as wind output rises. Traders should watch for a further notice confirming whether this directive proceeds, as it may affect dispatch of gas plant and local pricing outcomes through the day.