Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 7 September 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $73.52/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,455 MW. That's well down from this morning's peak of $159.84/MWh recorded around 18:35 UTC (04:35 AEST) as demand climbed through the 1,600-1,700 MW band, but still elevated relative to overnight troughs that touched negative pricing (-$4.92/MWh) during the low-demand window between 00:00-05:00 AEST when demand fell below 500 MW. The 24-hour pattern shows the classic SA shape: near-zero or negative prices overnight on strong wind output, a steep ramp through the morning peak as demand builds and solar hasn't yet firmed, then moderation into the evening.
Generation mix at the current interval is wind-dominated at 1,228 MW, with batteries contributing 307 MW, gas CCGT at 126 MW, gas OCGT at 86 MW, and solar at zero given the 20:30 UTC (early morning AEST) timing. Renewable penetration reads 87.86%, and carbon intensity is 0.0674 tCO2/MWh — both figures near the cleaner end of today's range. Carbon intensity has swung considerably through the prior 24 hours, dropping as low as 0.0304 tCO2/MWh overnight on wind strength and spiking to 0.3489 tCO2/MWh mid-morning (08:25 UTC) as gas plant ramped to cover the demand peak with renewable penetration briefly falling to 38.92%.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $70-95/MWh band through the next few hours before easing toward $19-55/MWh by 09:00-10:00 AEST tonight, then falling to near-zero and negative territory ($0-12/MWh) through the overnight trough from roughly 10:00 AEST to 15:00 AEST, consistent with typical wind-driven overnight softness. A sharp rally is forecast for tomorrow's morning peak, with prices projected to reach $101-125/MWh between 17:00-20:00 AEST (target times 08:00-11:00 UTC), and a further spike to $143.79/MWh flagged around 01:00 AEST 9 September before prices collapse to negative territory (-$0.88/MWh) by the following evening. Weather supports this trajectory — today's outlook shows minimal solar potential (11%) and near-calm wind (1.9%), with cold conditions (4.5-14.7°C) driving heating demand.
No active market notices are specific to SA today; recent SA-related notices (intervention events on 5-6 September, non-conformance on ADPBA1, transmission line reclassifications near Para-Templers West and Magill-Torrens Island) have all been cancelled or resolved. The most recent live notice affecting the broader NEM is a cancelled Victorian LOR1 forecast for tomorrow morning (07:00-07:30 AEST), which had flagged a tight reserve margin (1,155 MW required vs 1,025 MW available) but was withdrawn as of 20:10 AEST last night — worth monitoring given SA-VIC interconnector flows can be sensitive to Victorian reserve conditions.