Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 13 September 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $53.21/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, easing back from an evening peak that touched $138/MWh at 01:45 AEST and held in the $69-91/MWh band through the early evening. Overnight the region spent an extended stretch in negative territory, bottoming near -$19/MWh around 13:25 AEST yesterday as wind generation dominated and demand troughed below 650 MW. Demand has since climbed to 1,315 MW, tracking the typical morning build.
Generation mix at the latest interval shows wind at 740 MW, comfortably the largest contributor, alongside 80 MW from gas OCGT, 62 MW from gas CCGT, 55 MW from battery storage, and solar at zero given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration reads 84.8%, up sharply from a low of 66.7% around 17:00 AEST yesterday evening when gas plant ramped to cover the evening peak. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.0881 tCO2/MWh, down from a peak of 0.1916 tCO2/MWh during yesterday's evening ramp, and well below the 0.04-0.06 tCO2/MWh readings recorded overnight when wind output was strongest.
Predispatch forecasts point to a mixed day ahead. Prices are expected to stay soft through the early morning, with forecast RRPs between $9-20/MWh from 07:00 to 15:00 AEST as wind and low demand keep the market subdued. A sharp lift is forecast from 17:00 AEST, with prices projected to reach $89-96/MWh by 18:00, then spike to $143.15/MWh and hold there from 19:00 through to roughly 22:00 AEST, before easing to $101/MWh and then $80/MWh into the evening. This pattern is consistent with tightening evening supply margins as solar drops away and demand ramps into the peak period. Weather outlook shows solar potential improving materially from 17 September (27-29%) as skies clear, which should moderate afternoon price pressure later in the week; today's cloud cover sits at 88%, capping solar contribution.
Several active AEMO notices are relevant. A forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition is flagged for 19 September between 12:00-14:30 AEST, with minimum demand forecast at -111 MW — a market response is being sought. Separately, AEMO has directed AGL's Torrens Island B4 unit to synchronise and follow dispatch targets from 08:00 AEST today through to 14:00 AEST, citing inadequate voltage control from currently committed synchronous generation — this follows a pattern of similar directions issued through the past week (9, 11 and 13 September) reflecting recurring voltage support needs in SA. Traders should note the elevated grid stress score of 66.1 alongside these repeated intervention events when assessing dispatch risk today.