Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 6 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $119.52/MWh at 6:30am AEST, down from an overnight peak above $260/MWh around 7:30am yesterday evening but well above the sub-$50/MWh trough seen between 2-3am. Demand currently sits at 1,562 MW, tracking a typical morning ramp after overnight lows near 1,000 MW. Over the past 24 hours prices have swung widely — from a low of $40.67/MWh to a high of $264.98/MWh — reflecting the volatility typical of a wind-and-gas-dominated region as generation mix shifts through the day.
The current generation mix is thermally-weighted: GAS_OCGT is contributing 607 MW and GAS_CCGT 603 MW, together accounting for the majority of supply, with WIND at 389 MW and BATTERY discharging 70 MW. SOLAR is at 0 MW, consistent with the pre-dawn timing of this snapshot. This puts renewable penetration at 27.5% and carbon intensity at 0.4135 tCO2/MWh — both mid-range for SA, which has swung between 70%+ renewable overnight (intensity as low as 0.167 tCO2/MWh around 2am) and single-digit renewable troughs near midday yesterday (intensity above 0.51 tCO2/MWh) as wind output eased and gas plant carried the load.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued volatility today: prices are expected to hold in the $120-130/MWh range through the morning peak (7-9am), spike to a forecast $188/MWh around 8:30am on tightening supply, then ease through the day. A pronounced trough is forecast from midday through late afternoon, with prices falling to single digits and near-zero between 2pm and 5:30pm AEST — driven by the day's solar and wind outlook (average solar potential 14.9%, wind potential just 2.6% today, per the weather outlook) combined with softer demand. Prices are then forecast to recover into the evening peak. These low-price windows align with the identified load-shifting opportunities, particularly 2-5pm, where average prices near $10/MWh or below offer savings of $150-190/MWh versus peak periods.
On market notices, AEMO's SA-specific intervention event and generator directions to AGL's Torrens Island units (issued 1-2 August) have been cancelled, with the Torrens Island B busbar restored to service and no reclassification of that contingency event. The most recent active notice affecting the broader NEM is a QLD network reclassification (Nebo SVC/transformer) issued yesterday afternoon, which does not directly constrain SA flows. No new SA-specific credible contingency events or intervention actions are currently in force.