Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 5 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $170.83/MWh as at 6:30am AEST, sitting mid-range after a volatile overnight session that saw prices spike as high as $359.45/MWh around 3:50pm yesterday and $299.44/MWh printed on multiple intervals through the afternoon peak. Demand at the current interval reads 1,585 MW, down from peaks above 2,380 MW recorded mid-afternoon yesterday. The 24-hour trend shows prices generally easing from yesterday's afternoon volatility, though today's price remains elevated relative to the sub-$100/MWh troughs seen overnight between 1pm-6pm.
Generation mix at the latest interval shows gas dominating supply: GAS_OCGT at 620.83 MW and GAS_CCGT at 542.57 MW combine for 1,163 MW, well ahead of wind at 457.07 MW, battery output at 125.34 MW, and solar at 0 MW (overnight conditions). Renewable penetration sits at 33.36%, down from an intraday high of 49.3% around 4pm yesterday when wind and solar output peaked. Carbon intensity reads 0.3834 tCO2/MWh, tracking within the typical overnight range for the region — intensity troughed near 0.31 tCO2/MWh during yesterday's high-wind afternoon period and rose above 0.49 tCO2/MWh during the low-renewable morning peak around 7am.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp overnight price collapse, with forecast RRP falling to $49.02/MWh by 1am and holding in the $50-80/MWh band through early morning as demand eases and wind generation is expected to firm. Prices are forecast to climb again through tomorrow's morning peak, reaching $215.04/MWh by 10am and spiking to $282.40-283.99/MWh around 1-1:30pm before easing into the afternoon. Traders should note the load-shifting windows flagged for tonight: the 2:30am-4:30am period offers average prices near $53-60/MWh with material savings versus today's peak.
No active market notices directly constrain SA today. Recent history shows AEMO issued directions to AGL's Torrens Island units on 1-2 August for voltage support, since cancelled, and a non-credible contingency event at City West substation on 30 July has been closed out with cause unconfirmed. Current notices are dominated by routine price-review confirmations and interstate network/contingency events (NSW, TAS, VIC) with no bearing on SA dispatch conditions today.