Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 4 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $130.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST, easing from an overnight peak of $170.44/MWh recorded across several intervals between 17:25 and 20:25 AEST yesterday evening. Demand currently reads 1,674 MW, well down from the evening peak above 2,280 MW seen around 09:00-09:30 (UTC), reflecting the typical morning-to-evening demand curve. Prices have been volatile through the past 24 hours, ranging from a low of $50.94/MWh overnight to intraday spikes above $170/MWh, consistent with SA's characteristically thin liquidity and sensitivity to wind swings.
The generation mix at the current interval shows GAS_OCGT leading at 443.87 MW, followed by GAS_CCGT at 298.25 MW, WIND at 291.49 MW, BATTERY at 2.58 MW, and SOLAR at 0 MW (overnight conditions, no solar generation). This gives a renewable penetration of 28.38%, down from overnight highs of 60-63% recorded between 00:00 and 00:30 AEST when wind output was stronger. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.4195 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.2129 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship between wind output and gas-fired generation share typical for this region.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the morning peak. Forecast RRP climbs from $164.69/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $363.15/MWh at 09:00 AEST, then eases before a second, larger spike overnight: forecasts show $312.14/MWh at 07:00 AEST tomorrow, $375/MWh at 09:00, and a peak of $496.72/MWh at 10:00 AEST tomorrow morning. This trajectory reflects tight overnight conditions with negligible solar (weather outlook shows 0% solar potential today, heavy cloud cover at 97-100%, and wind potential below 1%). Traders should note load-shifting windows identified for the 01:00-06:30 AEST period tomorrow, with prices in the $107-$128/MWh range offering savings up to $389/MWh versus peak.
On notices, SA-specific market interventions from 1-2 August have been cancelled — AGL's Torrens Island directions (TORRB2/TORRB3) were rescinded and the AEMO intervention event closed as of 02/08 15:30 AEST. A non-credible contingency event at City West 275/66kV transformer on 30 July remains logged with no ongoing load impact. No active SA-specific constraints are currently listed, though inter-regional transfer limit variations affecting the Vic-SA (V-SA) interconnector from late July remain in the notice history and warrant monitoring given SA's exposure to Victorian flows during today's price volatility.