Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 27 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at -$1.05/MWh at 06:30 AEST (interval ending 20:30 UTC 27 July), continuing an extended run of negative and sub-$10 pricing that has held since roughly 09:00 AEST yesterday. Demand at the current interval is 1,535 MW. The overnight trend shows prices collapsing from evening peaks above $250/MWh around 07:00 AEST yesterday down through the $30-100/MWh band, then into negative territory from approximately 09:15 AEST onward, with troughs near -$20/MWh in mid-morning trade. This pattern reflects strong wind output overwhelming demand through the low-load overnight and early-morning period.
Generation mix is heavily wind-dominated: wind is contributing 1,608 MW, gas CCGT 43 MW, battery output 13 MW, gas OCGT negligible at 0.1 MW, and solar at zero (pre-dawn). Renewable penetration sits at 97.4%, pushing carbon intensity down to 0.0128 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest readings of the past 24 hours, consistent with a run of sub-0.015 tCO2/MWh intensity since mid-morning yesterday. This compares with intensity above 0.30 tCO2/MWh during yesterday evening's peak, underscoring how tightly SA's carbon profile tracks wind availability.
Predispatch forecasts show prices staying low through the early morning, trading between -$6.51/MWh and $13/MWh out to 06:00 AEST, before lifting as solar ramps and demand builds: $7.79/MWh at 07:00, climbing to the mid-$50s/MWh by 08:00-08:30, and holding in the $55-67/MWh band through the morning and into early afternoon. Prices ease slightly into early afternoon ($27-35/MWh around 13:00-13:30) before climbing again toward $56/MWh by late afternoon and evening (16:00-18:00). Today's weather outlook shows moderate wind potential (16.4% avg) and low solar potential (1.7% avg) under 72% cloud cover, tempering the strength of yesterday's wind-driven price suppression as the day progresses.
Active AEMO notices for SA include a cancelled Forecast LOR2 condition for 29 July (reserve requirement 447 MW vs 439 MW available), following several LO