Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 8 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$2.99/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 4728 MW, reflecting typical Sunday overnight-into-morning conditions rather than any stress event. Prices have spent most of the past 24 hours in negative-to-low territory, dipping to -$7.51/MWh when demand troughed near 3660 MW around 03:00-03:30 AEST. Demand shows strong price sensitivity in the 4000-6800 MW band: as overnight demand climbed from the 3660 MW trough toward Saturday's evening peak near 6900 MW, prices moved from negative through the $20-40/MWh range, confirming the region remains in a low-cost supply stack until demand approaches 6500+ MW.
Wind is currently contributing 3050 MW against brown coal's 2819 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn hour and 100% cloud cover forecast for today — the region's renewable penetration sits at 52.01% and carbon intensity at 0.5854 tCO2/MWh. Today's weather outlook (max 12.9°C, heavy cloud, no solar potential) points to a demand shape driven by heating load rather than cooling, with AEMO's forecast trajectory showing prices holding near zero through the early morning before lifting sharply from 07:00 AEST (forecast $34.99/MWh) into a midday peak — the model flags $62.77/MWh at 12:00 AEST and a secondary $53.48/MWh at 12:30, likely tied to reduced solar availability given the overcast conditions suppressing the usual midday renewable offset.
The demand trajectory for today should mirror Saturday's pattern: a trough below 4000 MW in the early hours, a steady climb through breakfast (6:00-9:00 AEST) pushing demand past 6500 MW and prices into the $10-25/MWh range, then afternoon easing before an evening ramp. Given zero solar potential forecast for today versus a typical contribution, the midday price bump to above $50/MWh is notable — this is a genuine forecast risk rather than the neutral-to-negative pricing seen on Saturday afternoon when demand fell toward 4400 MW. Traders should watch the 11:00-13:00 AEST window closely, as the model's forecast prices there ($22-63/MWh) are considerably firmer than the equivalent period yesterday, reflecting cloud-driven solar underperformance across the region. No VIC-specific market notices or interventions are active; the SA voltage-related directions and QLD network notices do not directly affect Victorian demand-side conditions today.