Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 3 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $92.52/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,662 MW and climbing sharply — up from 6,012 MW just two hours earlier, a 650 MW increase as the morning ramp takes hold. This morning ramp is a textbook demand-price correlation: overnight demand troughed near 5,350-5,600 MW between 03:00-05:00 AEST with prices deeply negative (-$1.10 to -$6.60/MWh) as wind generation (currently 2,371 MW) oversupplied a low-demand grid. Once demand cleared 6,400 MW around 06:00 AEST, prices flipped positive and have been climbing in lockstep, briefly touching $108.44/MWh at 08:25 AEST when demand peaked near 8,078 MW.
The forecast trajectory points to a stronger demand-driven price escalation through the morning and into midday. AEMO's forecast curve shows prices climbing from current levels to $120-146/MWh across the 08:00-12:00 AEST window, with a forecast peak of $146.10/MWh around 12:00 AEST — unusual for a winter midday, suggesting sustained heating demand load (current heating demand index 10.6, temperature just 7.4°C) combined with minimal solar contribution (solar potential 2.4, generation currently 0 MW at this hour) is keeping brown coal (4,565 MW) and gas peaking plant engaged. Prices are forecast to ease back to $77-90/MWh through the afternoon (14:00-18:00 AEST) as the temperature outlook improves slightly (max 12.8°C) and demand moderates, before evening ramp risk returns after 18:00 AEST.
Demand-side flexibility is material today given this volatility: the load-shifting analysis flags overnight windows (00:30-02:30 AEST) averaging $10.50/MWh with $135/MWh in avoided cost versus today's forecast peak — a stark illustration of how much value sits in the demand curve's trough-to-peak spread. Grid stress scoring sits at 73.5, reflecting the combination of low renewable penetration (36.7% currently, trending toward 28-30% through midday as solar remains negligible) and rising demand pressure. No load-shedding directions or non-conformance notices are active for VIC1 today; the operationally relevant notices are interconnector-related (NSW1 lightning reclassifications, historical SA1 interventions) rather than Victorian demand constraints, so today's price action is being driven by underlying demand-weather dynamics rather than any network or generator outage in VIC.