Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 2 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $10.50/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,301 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Overnight demand troughed near 3,530 MW around 03:45-04:00 AEST, driving prices deeply negative (down to -$60/MWh) as wind generation — currently 2,929 MW, over 46% of the mix — outpaced underlying load. The current 06:30 reading confirms the morning demand ramp is well underway, up roughly 2,770 MW from the overnight low, and price has responded accordingly, moving from negative territory into positive double digits.
Demand-price sensitivity this morning is pronounced: the 07:00-08:00 AEST window last saw 30-minute prices spike between $22-54/MWh as demand pushed past 6,800 MW, with five-minute intervals touching $54.48/MWh at the 07:00 mark. AEMO's forecast confirms this trajectory strengthens materially later today, with 30-minute forecast RRP climbing to $83-98/MWh across the 08:00-12:00 AEST block, peaking near $98.30/MWh around 09:30 AEST. This aligns with typical Victorian winter morning demand behaviour — heating load (currently 10.1 on the heating demand index, with a 7.9°C reading and minimal solar potential at 0%) is compounding the ramp just as rooftop PV contribution remains negligible until mid-morning.
A second, more moderate price step is forecast for the early afternoon, with 30-minute RRP holding around $35.94/MWh through 15:00-16:30 AEST, before easing back toward $10-19/MWh into the evening. Brown coal (3,778 MW) and wind remain the dominant supply sources feeding this ramp, with battery output at 333 MW and negligible solar (0 MW) reflecting the current low cloud-adjusted solar potential. Carbon intensity has ticked up to 0.645 tCO2/MWh (46.85% renewable) from the 07:00 overnight low of 0.566 tCO2/MWh, tracking the reduced wind/demand ratio as load builds.
On demand-side network factors, an active constraint set (CA_SYDS_597B5710) affecting the VIC-SA and VIC-NSW interconnector flows remains in force from AEMO's Power System Security directive, which could tighten regional supply-demand balance during today's peak periods if transfer limits bind. No new load-shedding or reserve notices are current for VIC1 today, though SA's recent LOR1 declarations earlier in the week warrant monitoring given interconnector linkages. Traders should watch the 08:00-11:00 AEST window closely — with demand forecast to exceed 6,800-7,000 MW and forecast prices near $90-98/MWh, this represents today's key volatility risk period.