Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 6 August 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $127.67/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,353 MW, tracking the steep pre-dawn ramp as the region moves through the morning shoulder. Overnight demand troughed near 5,370 MW around 12:15 AEST at prices as low as $25-49/MWh, before climbing over 2,000 MW through the morning ramp to a peak of 8,019 MW at 18:35 AEST, where prices hit $125-140/MWh. The relationship is clear and consistent: every 500 MW of demand increase through the ramp adds roughly $15-25/MWh to price, with the tightest coupling visible between 06:00-08:00 AEST as demand climbed from 6,824 MW to 7,963 MW while prices rose from $94 to $145/MWh.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a volatile day ahead. Prices are forecast to hold in the $130-145/MWh band through the next few hours before a sharp spike to $211/MWh forecast around 18:30 AEST (target interval), coinciding with peak evening demand as heating load builds on a cold, overcast day — current conditions show 9.9°C, 97% cloud cover, and heating demand index of 8.1, with near-zero solar potential all day (average 2.5%). A second demand-driven price spike to $183/MWh is forecast around 21:00 AEST. Both spikes align with periods of minimal renewable contribution: current renewable penetration sits at just 17.1%, with wind at only 99 MW and solar at 0 MW, leaving brown coal (4,320 MW) and gas peakers to cover the ramp alongside 551 MW of battery discharge.

For today's outlook, expect price sensitivity to remain elevated through both the morning shoulder (already in progress) and the evening peak, with the 18:00-19:00 AEST window carrying the highest forecast risk given the $211/MWh projection. Overnight into tomorrow, prices are forecast to collapse to near-zero ($0.12-10.50/MWh) between 14:00-18:00 AEST tomorrow as demand falls away — but for today, the demand trajectory from trough (5,370 MW) to peak (8,019 MW) represents a 49% swing that is the primary driver of the $25 to $145+ price range observed across the day. No VIC-specific network constraints are currently active that would materially affect price formation beyond the SYTS MLTS 2 line outage noted on 1 August, which remains a background factor for interconnector flows.