Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 7 August 2026
Victoria spot price sits at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,341 MW — up from an overnight trough near 4,500-4,600 MW between 03:00 and 04:30, when negative pricing prevailed (as low as -$5.37/MWh). Wind generation of 3,171 MW is covering the bulk of current demand, with brown coal contributing 2,926 MW and hydro/battery/gas making up the balance, leaving the region at effectively zero-cost energy through this window.
The demand-price relationship over the past 24 hours shows clear sensitivity: as load climbed from the 4,500 MW overnight base toward the evening peak of 7,733 MW (21:45 AEST yesterday), prices rose in step, breaching $170/MWh at several 5-minute intervals between 21:55 and 22:30. That peak period correlated with wind output tapering and brown coal/gas plant picking up marginal load, pushing the price-setting unit higher. Once demand fell back below 6,500 MW after 23:00, prices retreated to the $40-90/MWh band, and by the 03:00-05:00 low-demand trough, prices collapsed to near zero or negative as wind continued generating into a low-load system.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for today shows demand-driven price suppression persisting through most of the day: forecast RRP stays below $10/MWh from 07:00 through 19:00 AEST, with a brief firming to $41-59/MWh expected mid-morning (07:30-11:00 window) before dropping back to near-zero or negative for the afternoon and evening. Negative prices are forecast into tonight's overnight trough (-$6 to -$7/MWh from 01:00 through 04:00 tomorrow), consistent with the low-demand, high-wind pattern seen overnight. Identified load-shifting windows confirm this: the 02:00-06:00 AEST slot offers average prices between -$6.34 and $0.02/MWh, each saving $60-66/MWh versus yesterday's evening peak.
No VIC-specific demand-side notices are active today — the relevant market notices concern QLD non-conformance events and NSW/SA network constraints, none of which materially affect Victorian demand-supply balance. With renewable penetration at 52.4% and carbon intensity at 0.581 tCO2/MWh currently, and cloud cover forecast at 82% today limiting solar contribution, price direction today will remain tightly coupled to wind output and the modest late-morning demand lift rather than any supply-side disruption.