Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 7 August 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $97.80/MWh at 06:30 AEST, easing from a morning peak of $140.34/MWh at 03:45 AEST and well down from the previous evening's peak of $130.51/MWh. Demand is at 6,257 MW, off its earlier 7,467 MW high. Overnight prices swung negative, bottoming at -$3.73/MWh around 09:10-09:15 AEST as demand fell below 4,000 MW, before climbing sharply through the morning ramp as demand recovered.
Generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 5,797 MW, supplying the bulk of the 7,083 MW total. Wind is contributing 473 MW and battery output sits at 523 MW, with hydro at 166 MW, gas OCGT at 124 MW, and solar negligible at 0.18 MW given the evening hour. Renewable penetration is at 16.4%, well down from the overnight peak of 46.5% reached around 03:30-04:00 AEST when demand was low and wind generation carried a larger share. Carbon intensity is at 0.7317 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4662 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship with renewable share as coal's proportion of the mix rises during the evening peak.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing through the evening, with $105.49/MWh forecast for 07:00 AEST, dropping to $55.53/MWh by 08:00 AEST and turning negative by 09:00 AEST as overnight demand troughs. Prices are forecast to stay negative from roughly 09:00 AEST through to 06:00 AEST tomorrow, reaching lows near -$9/MWh around 04:00-04:30 AEST, before a sharp ramp back to $78-120/MWh range through tomorrow morning's 07:00-11:00 AEST window. This overnight negative-price window presents clear load-shifting opportunity for flexible demand, with the load window analysis identifying up to $128/MWh in savings versus peak pricing for load shifted into the 02:00-05:30 AEST period.
Active market notices for QLD1 include a non-conformance declaration for unit MPP_1 (49 MW, 16:20-17:30 AEST 7 August) and STAN-1 (10 MW, brief duration 06:45-06:50 AEST). AEMO has also reclassified the H11 Nebo SVC and Nebo No.1 275/132kV transformer trip as a credible contingency event, effective from 20:31 AEST 6 August until further notice — a factor worth monitoring for regional network security implications. No active market interventions are currently in place for Queensland.