Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 1 August 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $55.50/MWh at 20:30 AEST, tracking within its recent overnight band after swinging from an early-morning trough of -$5.00/MWh (00:20) to a morning peak of $89.73/MWh (06:30) as demand ramped through the 6-9am window. Total demand is 5,759 MW, down from yesterday's evening peak above 7,300 MW. The 24-hour pattern shows the now-familiar shape: negative-to-near-zero prices overnight into early morning, a sharp climb through the morning peak, moderation through midday, and a gradual afternoon decline into the $35-55/MWh range before firming again this evening.

Generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,053 MW, with wind contributing 1,528 MW, gas OCGT at 125 MW, battery output at 118 MW, hydro at 54 MW, and solar negligible at 0.3 MW given the evening hour. Renewable penetration sits at 24.7%, consistent with the low-20s to mid-40s range seen over the past 24 hours — renewables peaked near 54% around 23:30 last night when overnight demand troughed and wind output was strong, before declining through the day as coal baseload carried the bulk of daytime demand. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6583 tCO2/MWh, near the day's upper range; intensity has moved inversely with renewable share, bottoming around 0.40 tCO2/MWh overnight and climbing above 0.66 tCO2/MWh through the afternoon coal-heavy periods.

AEMO predispatch forecasts show prices retreating toward zero and briefly negative territory between 21:30 and 05:30 tomorrow (as low as -$2.50/MWh around 03:00-03:30), consistent with overnight demand troughs and continued wind contribution. Prices are forecast to climb sharply from 06:00, reaching $87.73/MWh by 08:00 and holding near $91.76-91.77/MWh through the 08:30-11:00 window as morning demand builds — a materially firmer morning peak than today's. Prices then ease through midday and afternoon, settling around $53.75-65.65/MWh into the evening of 2 August. No QLD-specific market interventions, directions, or non-conformance notices are currently active; the notices list is dominated by SA region voltage-related directions (AGL Torrens Island units) and VIC/SA interconnector constraint variations, none of which directly affect QLD dispatch conditions today.