Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 31 July 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $78.54/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,066 MW. This follows an overnight peak that topped $294/MWh around 07:10-07:20 AEST on the back of the morning demand ramp, before easing through the day to a low near $54/MWh in the early afternoon and climbing again into this morning's window. The current price sits well below yesterday's evening peak but above the deeply negative territory seen briefly overnight.
Generation mix is currently led by black coal at 5,380 MW, providing the bulk of supply, with wind contributing 1,532 MW, battery output at 233 MW, gas (OCGT) at 123 MW, hydro at 54 MW, and solar negligible at this pre-dawn hour. Renewable penetration sits at 24.85%, in line with the past few hours' range of 22-25% as wind generation carries the renewable share overnight. Carbon intensity reads 0.6575 tCO2/MWh, down from 0.6844 tCO2/MWh 24 hours ago and tracking near the middle of its recent band — intensity typically eases toward 0.44-0.45 tCO2/MWh overnight when wind share peaks above 45%, and rises toward 0.66-0.68 tCO2/MWh through the middle of the day as coal dominates and wind contribution softens.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing over the coming hours, with $71.68/MWh forecast for 07:00 AEST and a slide to near-zero and negative territory ($-6.71/MWh) between 12:00-14:00 AEST, consistent with the identified low-price window from 11:00-16:00 AEST offering up to $108/MWh savings versus peak for flexible load. Prices are then forecast to climb back through the afternoon, reaching $99-101/MWh around 18:00-19:00 AEST as the evening ramp sets in, before easing again toward $39.75/MWh by 04:00 AEST tomorrow. Weather today shows modest solar potential (average 20.1%) and light wind (1.5%), so renewable output through the middle of the day will lean on solar contribution rather than wind.
On notices, QLD-specific items are limited to a prior non-conformance declaration for LILYSF1 (56 MW, 29 July) with no new market interventions or reserve notices currently active for the region. The Directlink interconnector outage between NSW and QLD-adjacent flows was completed and returned to service at 14:30 AEST yesterday, removing the N-X_MBTE_3 constraint set — this restores full interconnector capacity relevant to interregional flows affecting QLD pricing today.